CHAPTER 2

GROWTH AND CONSERVATION FRAMEWORK

Introduction

This chapter presents several elements: an assessment of existing land use conditions and current land supply in the County; a strategy to meet demand for growth and conservation, given the limited amount of undeveloped land remaining in the County; an organizational framework for future growth and preservation; and a Future Land Use Map (FLUM) made up of 18 detailed, design-oriented character areas. These elements provide intent and direction for shaping preferred development and conservation initiatives in Howard County for the 20-year planning horizon, 2020-2040, including guidance for future development regulations. Information presented in the Supporting Infrastructure chapter of the Plan provides general guidance for future investments in the community to support the FLUM. The County and other partners will use more detailed plans and growth management tools to implement General Plan policies. These plans will address the type, timing, and magnitude of new infrastructure needed to keep pace with the preferred uses, locations, patterns, and intensities of development depicted in the FLUM.

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Trends In Growth And Conservation

Howard County became Maryland’s 21st county in 1851 and remained largely rural and agrarian until the Rouse Company broke ground on Columbia in 1966. In response to rapid development within and around Columbia in the 1980s, the County’s Agricultural Land Preservation Program (ALPP) was established in 1984. The effects of the ALPP are apparent by the rural-urban divide that developed by 1990, whereby the eastern region of the County experienced development while the western region remained predominantly farmland. This division was reinforced by the establishment of the Planned Service Area (PSA) in the 1987 Master Plan for Water & Sewerage, which was later incorporated into the 1990 General Plan. Over the following decades, growth has been concentrated in the eastern portion of the County. Today, Howard County is largely built out, with most land in the County now considered either developed or preserved via open space, parkland, or agricultural, environmental, or other easement.

Howard County has reached a critical inflection point. Efforts to meet the high demand for new housing and commercial growth, paired with a need to ensure affordable and attainable housing for all who want to live and work in the County, are challenged by a limited supply of undeveloped, greenfield land. Careful and proactive planning is therefore critical to meet this demand in Howard County, as the County’s economic success has historically been tied to its residential appeal, high quality of life, and convenient location. This relationship suggests that, to sustain the economic growth that Howard County has enjoyed in the past, the County must continue to invest in housing, infrastructure, placemaking, and preservation—elements that make the County a desirable place to live, work, and recreate.

Land Supply

In 2020, the HoCo By Design project team prepared a Land Use Assessment, which evaluated existing land use conditions within Howard County. Map 2-1 shows developed, undeveloped, and open space and preservation areas in the County, identified as part of the Land Use Assessment. The project team used the Department of Planning and Zoning (DPZ)’s land use database and CommunityViz modeling software to evaluate the potential for future growth and conservation. Development status for parcels was primarily based on DPZ’s land use database. Other topic-specific geographic information system (GIS) data sets, including zoning districts, preservation easements, environmental features, roads, and others, were used as part of the land use assessment.

The major land status categories include the following:

1. Developed land;
2. Land committed for future development;
3. Downtown Columbia;
4. Land with further resubdivision potential;
5. Undeveloped and unprotected land; and
6. Preserved land and open space.

A brief description of each category is provided starting on page 7.

MAP 2-1: DEVELOPMENT & PRESERVATION

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• Developed
• Open Space & Preservation
• Undeveloped

Source: Howard County Departments of Public Works, Technology and Communication Services, and Planning and Zoning, 2022

Developed Land

Developed land includes land with permanent buildings and structures, roads, surface parking lots, and small undeveloped parcels whose size, shape, or access limitations would generally keep them from developing in the future. It is important to note that development does not equal density. For instance, in the Rural West, the developed land shown on the map mostly consists of single-family homes on large lots.

Committed Land for Future Development

Committed land for future development are areas where development is proposed or recently approved, either by subdivision or site plan authorization. These are sometimes referred to as “pipeline development.” County service providers monitor committed development to prepare for near-term service requests and required infrastructure.

DPZ inventories and monitors new development in the County using a spatial and tabular tracking system. New development is tracked through four phases: 1) subdivision and site plan review; 2) recorded lots and approved site plans; 3) issued building permits; and 4) construction completion.

As of September 30, 2020, the DPZ tracking system for residential development reported 3,966 dwelling units under plan review; 2,377 dwelling units approved or platted with no building permit issued yet; and 737 dwelling units with building permits issued and under construction. For the same date, the DPZ tracking system for nonresidential development identified 1,409 employees—or workers who will be accommodated by planned future development—in plan review.

The HoCo By Design project team considered the total number of dwelling units and employees assumed in the development pipeline—7,080 new dwelling units and 1,409 employees—when developing recommendations for the General Plan.

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Planned Development in Downtown Columbia

The Downtown Columbia Plan (DCP) was adopted in 2010 and provides a 30-year framework to guide future development and conservation initiatives throughout the urban center. Topics covered in the DCP include land use, transportation, environment, community conservation, and housing. The 30-year planning horizon for the DCP aligns with the planning horizon for HoCo By Design, both of which end in 2040. The DCP is incorporated by reference in HoCo By Design.

The DCP calls for 6,244 new residential units, 4.3 million square feet of new office space, 1.25 million square feet of new retail space, and 640 new hotel rooms. The number of remaining dwelling units and employees envisioned for Downtown Columbia, less what has already been built since 2010, were considered when contemplating recommendations for HoCo By Design. This remaining total amounts to 4,596 new dwelling units and 20,782 new employees.

Resubdivision Potential

Many developed areas of Howard County are zoned for single-family detached homes. Some of these neighborhoods include homes on larger lots that could, under existing zoning regulations, be further subdivided into one or more additional lots to accommodate a separate home (or homes) of similar size alongside the existing residence. This process is referred to as resubdivision.

DPZ studied residential resubdivision potential in the County to identify lots or parcels in existing residential neighborhoods that are large enough to accommodate one or more home sites of similar size without a change (or variance) to the rules or requirements under the current zoning designation for the property. All single-family neighborhood zoning districts were included in the analysis.

It is estimated that the full residential resubdivision potential of the County in these zoning districts could accommodate 3,100 new dwelling units under the current zoning requirements for the properties. However, this potential depends on the interest of individual owners to subdivide in the future. For purposes of future projects, HoCo By Design assumed a moderate interest of residential property owners to resubdivide in the future—1,500 new dwelling units.

There is also limited opportunity to resubdivide large parcels for nonresidential development under the current zoning requirements for the properties. Approximately 1,600 new employees could be generated from nonresidential resubdivision without a change to current zoning, also depending on the interest of individual owners to subdivide their lots in the future. When contemplating recommendations for the General Plan, it was assumed that all 1,600 employees through nonresidential resubdivision would be accommodated.

Undeveloped, Unprotected Land

The wide distribution and relatively small size of undeveloped parcels in the County—approximately 2% of all land in the County—means there are limited opportunities to alter their intended impact on the landscape beyond what is planned under current zoning district assignments. Unless they are purchased or placed under easement for permanent preservation, it is likely that undeveloped land in the County will develop and look very similar to existing adjacent properties.

However, a significant amount of the undeveloped and unprotected land in the County remains undeveloped due to capacity constraints, including parcel shape and size, as well as environmental features, such as streams, wetlands, floodplains, and steep slopes. Given the higher proportion of environmental constraints on remaining undeveloped parcels, their potential for development will be limited.

If fully developed, these parcels could accommodate 2,024 new dwelling units and 4,210 new employees. The project team considered the limited capacity of this undeveloped, unprotected land in crafting recommendations for the General Plan.

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Undeveloped Land

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Open Space

Land Preservation: Parkland, Open Space, and Farmland

Howard County has proactively preserved open space and farmland for decades. Today, about 39% of all land in the County is protected. Over half of this land is permanently preserved through environmental and agricultural preservation easements. The Agricultural Land Preservation Program has preserved over 23,000 acres of farmland through a combination of preservation easements purchased by the County, the dedication of agricultural preservation parcels as provided by the County's Zoning Regulations, and preservation easements purchased by the Maryland Agricultural Land Preservation Foundation. Over 9,000 acres of environmental preservation easements have been placed on land in the Rural West through the Zoning Regulations.

Additionally, about 25,000 acres of state, Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC), and county parks and open space make up over a third of preserved land in the County. Columbia Association's 3,600 acres of open space comprises an additional 6% of preserved land in the County.

The General Plan retains all preserved parkland, open space, and easements in the County existing today, and presents opportunities for further conservation of environmental, agricultural, and open space land.

Demand For Land: Twenty Year Market Potential

Despite a limited supply of available undeveloped land, Howard County continues to see a high demand for residential and commercial growth. RCLCO Real Estate Advisors conducted a Market Research and Demand Forecast (the Forecast), published on October 1, 2020, to inform HoCo By Design. The Forecast found that the County has reached an inflection point, whereby land constraints and affordability challenges could impact the ability to accommodate future residential and commercial growth. It also found that the economic vitality of the County is directly tied to its desirability as a place to live and work, which must be maintained over time. Most high-paying and fast-growing industries are booming either in response to population and job bases (like healthcare, education, and publishing), or as a result of national economic and industry trends (like technology, professional services, and food services). To sustain the economic growth that has been historically enjoyed and to maintain a competitive edge over other markets, the County must continue to invest in housing, infrastructure, placemaking, job creation, and other activities that make it a desirable place for people and employers to call home.

Market Demand Projections

The Forecast projected market-driven demand for new retail, office, industrial, residential, and hotel room space in the absence of land, regulation, or other constraints. It concluded that there is a strong market in Howard County for commercial uses, with potential to add up to 59,000 jobs between 2020 and 2040. Additionally, there is a future demand for 31,000 new homes to accommodate the 28,000 new households associated with that job growth (allowing for a vacancy factor).

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Housing

Current Total 116,000 Homes

Projected Demand 31,000 New Homes

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Employment

Current Total 223,000 Jobs

Projected Demand 59,000 New Jobs

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Commercial

Current Total 12.2M Sq.Ft 4,000 Hotel Rooms

Projected Demand 16.5M Sq. Ft. 1,000 Hotel Rooms

Source: RCLCO Market Research and Demand Forecast (2020)

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Job Demand vs. Existing Capacity

There are 656 acres of undeveloped nonresidential land in Howard County (including land zoned for office, retail, flex, industrial, and warehouse uses) which could accommodate about 28,000 new jobs. Over 20 years, this equates to an average of 1,400 jobs per year. Over the 10 years, the County gained about 3,000 new jobs per year, with much of this growth attributable to the most recent Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) and the associated expansion of Fort Meade.

The 59,000 new jobs estimated in the Forecast represent an average annual addition of 2,950 new jobs per year over the next two decades. This growth is more than twice what could be accommodated within existing land use constraints. To meet this future demand, land use changes will need to occur in the County.

Housing Demand vs. Existing Capacity

The current estimated land use capacity for new housing in Howard County, as outlined in the various land use categories above, is only 15,200 units. Land use changes will also need to occur in the County to accommodate this residential demand.

The findings in the Forecast establish what is possible—a ceiling—in terms of market demand. To determine the optimal growth targets HoCo By Design should assume, DPZ evaluated the findings against the General Plan’s vision, the FLUM, the timing and location of infrastructure, and budgetary factors.

Future Growth Potential By The Numbers

Source: Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning, 2022

An estimated 27,000 total units may be built between 2020 and 2040 if the envisioned Future Land Use Map (FLUM) is implemented through the comprehensive re-zoning process and if market conditions allow for development.

Source: Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning, 2020

Units in the development pipeline are a part of the County’s future development potential from 2020-2040. Many of these units have already been granted housing allocations under the PlanHoward 2030 Housing Allocation Chart and are therefore expected to be built in the early years of the HoCo By Design planning horizon.

Source: Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning, 2023

The APFO housing allocation chart is the legal tool that is used to cap and pace residential growth that can be built annually in character areas identified on the Future Land Use Map (FLUM). See Chapter 10 for additional information about the APFO chart.

Up to 24,294 units could be built using HoCo By Design Housing Allocations between 2026 and 2040. Out of the 24,294 units, 5,100 units are set-aside specifically for the proposed affordable housing incentive programs.

**Growth potential for Gateway Regional Activity Center not included.

WHAT INFLUENCES DEVELOPMENT

The General Plan is only one element among many that influences how and when development takes place and what it looks like. Development found in Howard County—both patterns and intensities—are generally driven by five growth factors: 1) market demand; 2) local economies and growth outlooks; 3) property owners' willingness to participate; 4) government regulations and policies; and 5) the availability and capacity of infrastructure. These ever-changing variables affect one another and impact the location and type of development that occurs. Therefore, actual growth may differ from what is planned, depending on fluctuations in these factors.

<u>Market Demand, Available Capital, and Developer Interests</u> The demand for different development types, patterns, and intensities is driven by the availability of buyers or renters in the area and their purchasing power. Developers and private parties decide where and when to pursue a project based upon several considerations, including their own interests, market demand, available financing, and the probability of success. Private land development is financed by banks and other institutions that establish the minimum lending criteria. To justify capital investment, these organizations must have reasonable confidence that a project will be accepted by the community and regulators.

<u>The Local Economy and Growth Outlook</u> Future development is directly influenced by the strength and resilience of the local and regional economies. The private sector takes into consideration projected employment rates, population forecasts, and the general demographics of an area before investing in new development projects.

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<u>Willing Property Owners</u> Property owners in Howard County decide whether land becomes available to develop or redevelop, or if land is proposed for permanent open space. New growth in the community is the result of property owners' willingness to sell real estate, whether for development or conservation purposes, or even to develop the land themselves.

<u>Government Regulations and Policies</u> To keep growth aligned with the community's overarching vision, development can be promoted or restricted through government policies, like zoning and land development controls; environmental policies, programs, and protections; and the application of regulations by local land use boards. Zoning and land development regulations control permitted uses in particular areas and allowances for height and density, and they may also include design standards or considerations. While the government has an important role to play in development, it is limited by the tools at its disposal—namely, applicable ordinances, regulations, and legal precedent. The County cannot restrict or promote a project beyond the powers provided in law.

<u>Available Infrastructure Capacity</u> The delivery and location of available infrastructure capacity is an important component for development. If the infrastructure cannot accommodate the impacts, some projects must wait until available capacity exists from either government or third-party service providers. There are opportunities, in some cases, for developers to fund certain on- or off-site infrastructure investments themselves to unlock available capacity and begin their projects on an accelerated timeline. Joint-funding agreements may be used by governments and third-party service providers to potentially expedite infrastructure projects where there is shared need and benefit.

HoCo By Design is responsive to the five growth factors, creating a guide for future growth and conservation initiatives to support and strengthen the qualities that make the County a desirable place to live, work, and play.

STRATEGY FOR GROWTH AND CONSERVATION

With continued strong demand for new housing and nonresidential growth, but a limited supply of undeveloped land, the County must optimize land use so that it can sustain a strong economy while maintaining the high quality of life to which county residents and businesses are accustomed.

Scenario Planning

To assess potential strategies for growth and conservation, and evaluate their effects, the HoCo By Design process included a scenario planning component that allowed stakeholders to evaluate several alternative futures for the County. Participants were asked to share their reactions to impacts and evaluate trade-offs for different themes and values voiced by the community. This scenario planning exercise generated future alternatives while considering emerging trends and the community’s desires for growth and conservation.

To create the growth scenarios, HoCo By Design used information and data from land use and other physical assessment documents on existing conditions in the County. This data was combined with thoughts, ideas, and opinions collected from community outreach events to prepare four distinct scenarios. Building upon the assessment of existing land supply in the Land Supply section on page 7, the project team used CommunityViz software to model potential future year growth and conservation patterns, and measure potential impacts of each scenario.

In addition to scenario development, the HoCo By Design CommunityViz model assessed specific impacts and issues that arose during the General Plan process. These included an evaluation of opportunities and constraints related to expanding the Planned Service Area, and potential impacts and opportunities to preserve environmental features, such as the Green Infrastructure Network.

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The HoCo By Design Scenario Planning Guide and a series of Growth Choices Workshop events held in March and April 2021 presented these four alternative futures for feedback.

The four scenarios contemplated various growth and land use choices and analyzed their potential impacts. Each scenario illustrated different land use patterns, such as, maintaining the status quo, scattered development throughout the County, and concentrating growth in targeted strategic locations. Specific to residential development, the scenarios included: Scenario A with 18,762 units, Scenario B 23,707 units, Scenario C 28,897 units, and Scenario D 36,585 units.

The HoCo By Design Future Land Use Map (FLUM) is most closely aligned with Scenarios B and C as it proposes to target

growth in strategic locations to generate a critical mass of residential and employment opportunities that may support various multimodal transportation options. HoCo by Design refers to these strategic locations as Activity Centers. The FLUM assumes approximately 27,000 new residential units. The 27,000 new units includes 7,080 units currently in the development pipeline which will be built under current regulations and land use policies. Gateway has been identified as a Regional Activity Center. Its development potential could yield thousands of new residential units, all of which is to be explored through a future master planning process (please see the Economic Prosperity chapter for more information).

A fiscal impact analysis was also conducted to determine the long-term impacts on the County’s budget for each of the growth scenarios and the FLUM. More information on these specific analyses can be found in the HoCo By Design Scenario Planning Guide.¹

The FLUM focuses new growth into redevelopment areas, which account for approximately 1.5% of the County's already-developed land. This approach addresses high demand for housing and commercial growth.

More information on growth management, including growth targets and potential infrastructure demands, can be found in the Supporting Infrastructure and Managing Growth chapters.

Planned Service Area and Tiers

The Sustainable Growth and Agricultural Preservation Act of 2012 (Senate Bill 236), adopted by the Maryland General Assembly, required local jurisdictions to adopt Growth Tiers by December 31, 2012. These Tiers designate certain areas for different types of development depending on specific characteristics such as sewerage service, agricultural use, forest and green space, and locally designated growth areas.

SB 236 required local jurisdictions to classify land into one of the following four Growth Tiers, as defined in the legislation.

• Tier I: designated growth area served by public sewer
• Tier II: designated for future extension of public sewer services
• Tier III: not planned for sewer service, not dominated by agricultural or forest, and planned for large lot development
• Tier IV: not planned for sewer service, dominated by agricultural and forest land planned for resource protection

The intent of the legislation was to protect the Chesapeake Bay and its associated rivers and streams by limiting the amount of development served by septic systems. Accordingly, major subdivisions in Tier IV areas (five or more lots in Howard County) are prohibited. While SB 236 established Tier definitions, the final land designations and the development of a local Growth Tiers map were left up to local jurisdictions. To meet SB 236 requirements, the Howard County Council adopted a Growth Tiers map in April 2013 as part of PlanHoward 2030. The County intends to maintain the Tiers map and used it as a basis for the FLUM.

In coordination with Growth Tiers, the Planned Service Area (PSA) outlines the areas of the County served by public water and sewer services. The PSA is also important because it serves as Howard County’s designated growth boundary, or Priority Funding Area, per the State’s Smart Growth Act.

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Expansions to the PSA for water and sewer service since 1990 have been very limited. In 1993, the County Council voted to extend water service to include the area around the Alpha Ridge Landfill. This extension was done solely out of concern for potential future groundwater contamination that might originate from the landfill; therefore, only water service is provided in this area. No sewer service is allowed and no change from rural land uses or zoning was authorized in this location.

Throughout the planning process, many community members expressed a desire to expand housing opportunities, especially for affordable housing, west of the PSA. The Housing Opportunities Master Plan recommends the County explore strategic locations in the Rural West (and other undeveloped, non-preserved areas of the County), where it may be feasible to accommodate increased development for more affordable housing opportunities while balancing other priorities such as water and sewer capacity, historical context, and agricultural preservation goals. HoCo By Design used CommunityViz to evaluate parcels outside the PSA that could accommodate higher-density residential development if zoning changes were made.¹ County agencies explored a wholesale expansion that moved the PSA to the western edge of the Rural Residential zone, since most of the land immediately adjacent to the PSA is already either preserved by easements or subdivided into smaller lots accommodating homes under separate ownership. Additionally, the scenario planning process looked at an expansion west of Maple Lawn, where there are fewer acres of permanently preserved land west of the PSA, so there is land that could accommodate residential development requiring water and sewer infrastructure.²

In both expansion cases, moving the PSA presented several challenges, including:

• Delivery of public services – Given that most of the available parcels are not adjacent to the PSA line, additional development at higher-densities would take on a scattered geographical pattern, which would not allow for efficient delivery of public services. Schools, fire, police, recreation and aging services, transportation, and public utilities would need to accommodate a larger and more dispersed population. This type of service delivery is counter to Smart Growth efforts where such services have been planned for in a more efficient and economical manner within the existing PSA.

• Environmental impacts – Significant development, especially that which would require new roadway construction, would have detrimental impacts to water quality and stream health in the Rocky Gorge Dam watershed in the southeastern portion of the County. This would run counter to the County’s participation in an interjurisdictional agreement designed to protect WSSC drinking water supply reservoirs. More information on the interjurisdictional agreement can be found in Technical Appendix A: Environment.

• Limited multi-modal transportation options – Disbursed development patterns would be difficult to serve with transit, which generally requires housing developments to be clustered in nodes or hubs accessible to transit riders. Additionally, due to rights-of-way (ROW) acquisition challenges, there are limited opportunities for bike and pedestrian infrastructure.

• Fiscal impact – The cost of expanding the PSA is significant. The estimated cost of new water/sewer infrastructure is approximately $2 million per mile. This cost estimate does not include the cost of ROW acquisitions or the cost of new treatment plants and other water/sewer infrastructure that would be required to accommodate the significant new growth in this area.

• Land preservation in the Rural West – The County has a 50-year history of preserving agricultural and environmental land in the Rural West through the Agricultural Land Preservation Program (ALPP) and the Zoning Regulations. Much of the land west of the PSA is now permanently preserved or already developed in a low-density residential subdivision context. Throughout the Rural West, residential and agricultural land abut or are within proximity to each other. A wholesale expansion of the PSA could fundamentally change the rural character of the West and exacerbate land use conflicts between farms and nearby residences.

Given these implications, the County will maintain the public water/sewer boundary in its existing location and small incremental changes can be assessed on a case-by-case basis if supported by General Plan policies.

HoCo By Design proposes one minor expansion of the PSA—adjoining the Board of Education property on Route 108. Because of its location at the interface of the Rural Residential zone and the Planned Service Area, this property should be designed to establish a transition that is compatible with and enhances surrounding communities. Additionally, one property proposes an expansion to the water service only area of the PSA, located at the intersection of Frederick Road and Triadelphia Road.

Map 2-2 outlines HoCo By Design’s proposed Growth Tiers and PSA boundary, including a minor expansion for a future school site adjoining the Board of Education property along Route 108.

MAP 2-2: HOCO BY DESIGN GROWTH TIERS

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Planned Service Area

Water Only Expansion Site

Howard County Public Schools PSA Expansion Site

Water Service Only Area

Tier I

Tier III

Tier IV

NOT TO SCALE

Source: Howard County Departments of Technology and Communication Services and Planning and Zoning, 2022

In the future, there may be situations where minor PSA adjustments may be appropriate. A PSA revision requires a General Plan Amendment. Any requests for a General Plan Amendment for expansion of the PSA should be denied unless:

• The proposed expansion of the PSA is intended to provide for a public or institutional use such as a religious facility, philanthropic institution, academic school; or
• The proposed expansion of the PSA includes a zoning proposal that is consistent with the General Plan.

Public sewer and water infrastructure capacity and costs of the above must be analyzed to confirm the feasibility and availability of scheduled capacity.

Expansions of the PSA boundary are limited to the following:

1. Properties adjoining the existing PSA boundary without including an intervening privately owned parcel;
2. The minimum area necessary to serve the proposed use. Development of the parcel consistent with the PSA boundary amendment is required after approval of the General Plan Amendment and prior to the inclusion of the parcel into the Metropolitan District; and
3. The particular use proposed at the time of expansion with a deadline for the completion of the improvements for the proposed use and connection to the public water and/or sewerage system. If the proposed use is not actually constructed and connected to the public water and/or sewerage system by the deadline specified, the PSA expansion shall be null and void, and the PSA automatically shall revert to its pre-existing location.

GCF-1 Policy Statement

Provide limited and predictable Planned Service Area expansions.

Implementing Actions

1. Planned Service Area expansions should include a development proposal that is consistent with the General Plan.
2. Any Planned Service Area expansions shall establish a transition that is compatible with and enhances surrounding communities, and provides an environmental benefit.
3. Any Planned Service Area expansion shall meet the criteria above.

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Ecological Health Elevated as a Priority

Throughout the planning process, HoCo By Design elevated equitable and sustainable growth and conservation alongside a desire to meet market demand. The General Plan's policies and implementing actions seek to sustain and improve the County's ecological health by emphasizing climate change mitigation and adaptation in addition to preservation and conservation of natural resources.

More information on ecological health, climate change, water resources, and other natural resources can be found in the Ecological Health chapter.

Fiscal Impact Assessment

An analysis was conducted to measure the fiscal impacts of the potential growth scenarios and the FLUM. General Fund operating and capital costs and revenues were projected based on the residential and nonresidential growth for each land use scenario. Based on the current cost and revenue structure and service levels in the County, the fiscal study determined that new growth would generate more revenues than costs for services and infrastructure, partly due to the fact that in Maryland counties multiple key revenues are directly tied to new development. As the amount of residential and nonresidential growth increases, the net revenues to the County also increase. Thus, growth has a positive net fiscal impact to the County.

The largest revenue sources to the County are property and income taxes. Combined, they generate about 90% of total operating revenues. The Maryland tax structure allows counties to assess both property tax and local income tax by place of residence. This tax structure is unique, as most counties in the United States do not have a direct local income tax and instead rely on other sources such as a local retail sales tax to raise revenues. Howard County’s authority to assess both property and income tax locally is a leading reason new residential development is fiscally positive.

Different land uses require different levels of service and infrastructure needs. For example, single family homes, with greater numbers of students, require more in school service and facility needs compared to multifamily homes, while non-residential land uses require no school services at all. These differences have been accounted for in the fiscal analysis.

A significant reason why new growth is a net positive to the County budget is because of the multiple one-time revenues collected from new construction. These revenues include transfer, recordation, and road excise taxes, as well as the school surcharge, and are used to help pay for new capital facilities and operating costs. For example, the school surcharge is collected at the time of building permit issuance for each new home built in the County. The school surcharge rate was recently increased from $1.32 per square foot to $7.50 per square foot beginning in 2022. Road excise taxes are collected on both residential and nonresidential development.

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SAAC FY2023 RECOMMENDATIONS

In its Fiscal Year 2023 report, the Spending Affordability Advisory Committee (SAAC) urged the County to focus on promoting and developing the diversity of its long-term tax base. The report emphasized the importance of commercial-base development to rebalance expenditure needs and fiscal resources—and recommended that the General Plan encourage redevelopment and commercial growth in defined employment centers. The SAAC also described how redevelopment, and more dense and multi-family-driven housing development, would become more important over the long-term, as the supply of greenfield parcels dwindles. The Committee suggested the County allow for more commercial development, reexamine height restrictions, and reassess parking ratios.

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Besides the need to build new infrastructure capacity to accommodate more people and jobs moving to the County, including new schools, roads, parks, and public safety facilities, there is also an increasing need to maintain and rebuild existing infrastructure. Much of the County’s public infrastructure was built in the 1950s and the decades following as suburban growth patterns emerged. A significant portion of this early infrastructure was funded with the assistance of state and federal funds, which are no longer available to the same extent. The County uses a variety of sources (general obligation bonds, pay-as-you-go funding, school surcharge, transfer taxes, and road excise tax revenue) to support infrastructure on an annual basis. However, infrastructure needs are increasing as many roads, schools, and other capital facilities reach the end of their useful lives.

The fiscal analysis shows that new growth generates positive net revenues for the County. So as growth continues, these additional net revenues can help pay for the rebuilding and maintenance of existing infrastructure. As new growth slows, however, these surplus revenues will diminish, creating challenges in the years ahead. Furthermore, and independent of new growth, the cost to maintain and rebuild roads, sewers, schools, and the like will only increase into the future as this existing infrastructure continues to age.

Regardless of Howard County’s growth trajectory, government will face challenges in the years ahead in maintaining its existing infrastructure. It is clear from the fiscal analysis that new growth generates net positive revenues for the County, with more growth generating more in net revenues. However, more growth will also require more infrastructure that will eventually need to be replaced. The County will be best served in the future if it prioritizes maintenance of existing infrastructure in future budget decisions.

Organizational Framework

(Preserve-Strengthen-Enhance-Transform)

The following organizational framework guided the overall direction of the Future Land Use Map. Land uses in the County were organized into four high-level categories: areas to preserve, areas to strengthen, areas to enhance, and areas to transform (P-S-E-T). Each category is described below with a general objective, important considerations, and targeted treatments summarized for moving things forward in the General Plan. As shown below, following the P-S-E-T category order, expectations generally follow ‘less change’ to ‘more change’ and ‘lower-intensity growth’ to ‘higher-intensity growth’ expected over the 20-year planning horizon.

The icons associated with each of the P-S-E-T categories below reinforce how specific recommendations support one or more of the Plan’s organizational framework categories throughout the document, and whether concept drawings, maps, policies, and text in the General Plan refer to areas to preserve, strengthen, enhance, or transform.

Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) Process

The HoCo By Design Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) worked alongside the project team in May-August 2021 to establish the organizational framework (Preserve-Strengthen-Enhance-Transform, or P-S-E-T) and develop the preferred hybrid scenario—the Future Land Use Map (FLUM).

An initial organizational framework (P-S-E-T) map was created from community feedback on the four scenarios presented during the Growth Choices Workshop in March and April 2021. PAC members used an ESRI online mapping application to propose and respond to the organizational framework (P-S-E-T) designations and to develop a final organizational framework (P-S-E-T) map of places to preserve, strengthen, enhance, or transform.

Following the development of the organizational framework (P-S-E-T) map, PAC members helped identify activity center locations and transform areas on the Future Land Use Map and provided valuable input on the character area designations that make up the FLUM.

More information on character areas can be found below and in Technical Appendix B: Character Areas.

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Areas to Preserve

Areas to Preserve safeguard rural and environmentally sensitive lands and provide meaningful opportunities to link residents with parks, recreation facilities, and nature. Future development in these locations is designed to protect open space, natural areas, farmland, and rural viewsheds in the community. It is limited to homes on very large lots scattered throughout the countryside or smaller lots clustered to preserve surrounding open space, park-related activities, and cross-county trails or greenways.

Areas to Preserve also include historic communities—areas of particular historic or cultural significance—where protection of historic integrity is paramount, and new buildings are sensitively-designed for the area's context.

Areas to Strengthen

Areas to Strengthen represent places that may need support to overcome specific hurdles preventing them from reaching their full potential. They may include certain village centers in Columbia, or rural crossroads in the West, or places that reflect Howard County's character and aspects that make it special. Physical improvements in all Areas to Strengthen should build upon, and contribute to, the continued success of these unique locations.

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Areas to Enhance (Residential or Nonresidential)

Areas to Enhance include existing developed areas—established residential communities, employment hubs, or retail centers—that are now stable but should consider long-term improvements to keep up with changing economics, technologies, consumer preferences, or age-related wear and tear. These areas are not likely to witness wholesale redevelopment but could benefit from strategic infill development or precise, tactical improvements capable of meaningfully enhancing the quality of life for their inhabitants.

Infill development in neighborhood enhancement areas should be sensitive to the uses, densities, and character of surrounding homes and neighborhoods. Infill development in retail and employment enhancement areas should provide jobs and services for nearby residents and the larger community.

Areas to Transform

Areas to Transform provide opportunities to reimagine Howard County's future and introduce new, energized activity areas that provide key locations for new employment centers, regional shopping centers, entertainment areas, and upper-story or adjacent residential units in appropriate locations. These areas require more deliberate planning and phasing to keep them viable over longer periods of change and have the potential to serve as new and reinvigorated activity centers for the whole of Howard County.

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MAP 2-3: THE GENERAL PLAN MAP The General Plan map provides a simplified overview of our future growth and conservation strategy showing those areas targeted for transformational redevelopment compared to areas where existing character should be preserved, strengthened, or enhanced.

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• Planned Service Area
• Areas to Transform
• Areas to Enhance, Strengthen, Transform
• Areas to Strengthen, Enhance (Residential)
• Areas to Enhance (Nonresidential)
• Areas to Preserve, Open Space
• Areas to Preserve, Strengthen, Historic Community
• Other Areas to Preserve

NOT TO SCALE

Source: Howard County Departments of Technology and Communication Services and Planning and Zoning, 2023

Elements Of The Organizational Framework Throughout The General Plan

• Character Area Typologies (Growth and Conservation Framework chapter and Character Areas technical appendix)
  • Eighteen character areas identified in the General Plan are presented within the P-S-E-T organizational framework categories.
• Focus Area Studies technical appendix
  • Illustrative design concepts were developed for New Town Columbia, Gateway, and Rural Crossroads.

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Character Area Typologies

The General Plan uses the term "character areas" to describe unique and discernible areas of the community depicted in the FLUM. The categories describe important elements that work together to instill a sense of place (or visitor experience) for residents, customers, or employees in the character area. A character-based planning approach prioritizes site design, public realm, building form and massing, and architecture over general land use and density. More specific rules and standards for the character areas — including provisions for permitted land uses, densities, block sizes, setbacks, parking, or landscaping considerations — will be addressed in the County’s Zoning Regulations or Subdivision and Land Development Regulations using the guidance and recommendations from the General Plan character descriptions found in Technical Appendix B: Character Areas.

Character areas were assigned on the FLUM based on the amount of change or intensity expected for a particular area, as indicated within the P-S-E-T organizational framework. As shown below, character areas in the FLUM where the least amount of change is expected include Open Space, Rural Conservation, Rural Living, and Historic Communities; and character areas where the most amount of change is expected include Mixed-Use Activity Centers, Downtown Columbia, and Transit Activity Centers.

Each of the 18 character areas are described briefly below. Additional descriptions of the character areas and their typical lot size and building placement; open space and natural resources; building types and massing; transportation network; and street and block patterns are provided in Technical Appendix B: Character Areas.

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Character Area Typologies

Each of the 18 character areas are described briefly on the pages below. Additional descriptions of the character areas and their typical lot size and building placement; open space and natural resources; building types and massing; transportation network; and street and block patterns are provided in Technical Appendix B: Character Areas.

Character Area Descriptions

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SPECIAL USE

Land reserved for landfills, quarries, or other uses that are unique in the County and often guided by federal or state planning, permitting, and design guidelines, such as the Alpha Ridge Landfill & Recycling Center.

OPEN SPACE

Land dedicated for active or passive open space uses. For example, open space uses can include natural resource protection, parks, greenways, and combinations of trails and pathways for recreational use and for amenity spaces in multi-family housing areas.

RURAL CONSERVATION

Land corresponding to the County's Rural Conservation (RC) Zoning District and characterized by large lots and a high degree of separation between buildings. Homes, farms, and farmettes are scattered throughout the countryside and integrated into the landscape. Several areas are preserved under agricultural or environmental easements.

RURAL LIVING

Land corresponding to the County's Rural Residential (RR) Zoning District and characterized by large lots or cluster lots surrounding open space and a high degree of separation between buildings. Homes, farms, and farmettes are scattered throughout the countryside and integrated into the landscape. Some areas are preserved under agricultural or environmental easements.

HISTORIC COMMUNITIES

Historic Communities include the Ellicott City Local and National Register Historic District, the Lawyers Hill Local and National Register Historic District, and the Savage Mill Historic National Register District. Each of these designated Historic Communities has a different character based on its original founding, historic growth, and site constraints, and may include several different land uses within the Historic Community.

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SINGLE-FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD

Land generally formed as subdivisions that currently includes a limited number of home choices (usually single-family detached or single-family attached homes).

MULTI-FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD

Land generally formed as complexes or communities with a relatively uniform housing type and density throughout. They support residential development at varying densities in the suburban landscape and may contain one or more of the following housing types: apartments, townhomes, stacked townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes, or cottage dwellings.

MIXED-USE NEIGHBORHOOD

Land offering the opportunity to live, work, shop, and play in a master-planned community that emphasizes a mix of uses; a small, but discernable, neighborhood activity center; and one or more neighborhoods connected to the small activity center by a network of pathways or walkable streets such as Maple Lawn and Turf Valley.

RURAL CROSSROADS

Small nodes of mixed-use areas focusing on commercial activity along rural highways at important intersections in older farming communities in the Rural West.

INDUSTRIAL

Land providing opportunities to concentrate employment clusters in the County. They support large-scale, single-tenant industrial, warehouse, and flex space buildings, as well as smaller, multi-tenant industrial buildings that are clustered and may support and serve one another.

CAMPUS

Land to support academic, medical, or office buildings; athletic facilities; event spaces; equipment; or other ancillary uses needed to support an educational, medical, or other large institution.

SUBURBAN COMMERCIAL

Land contributing to the County’s office employment base and serving the daily retail needs of office users and surrounding residential neighborhoods.

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DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA

Land comprising of Downtown Columbia. The Downtown Columbia Plan, adopted in 2010, creates a 30-year master plan for the revitalization and redevelopment of Downtown Columbia. For more information on the character of Downtown Columbia, refer to the Downtown Columbia Plan.

REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTER

Land consisting of the Columbia Gateway business park, an existing employment center with large-format buildings and surface parking lots throughout that should redevelop as a large regional growth center in the future. A master plan established through a public process should re-envision the area as a major hub for entertainment, employment, and innovation in the County with access from one or more major transportation corridors.

TRANSIT ACTIVITY CENTER

Land creating opportunities for compact, mixed-use development that maximizes residential, commercial, and open spaces within walking distance of premium public transit.

INDUSTRIAL MIXED-USE ACTIVITY CENTER

Land contributing to the County’s economic viability by providing places where people live, work, create, build, store, and distribute goods and services throughout the County and region.

VILLAGE ACTIVITY CENTER

Land in Columbia that provides goods and services to surrounding neighborhoods. New or redeveloped Village Activity Centers offer the opportunity to serve broader economic, civic, community, entertainment, and housing needs in the community.

MIXED-USE ACTIVITY CENTER

Land offering the opportunity to serve broader economic, entertainment, and housing needs in the community.

Future Land Use Map

The FLUM depicts preferred development types, locations, patterns, and intensities throughout the County and is based on empirical land use data that assumes the carrying capacity in each character area. It provides a physical framework to more effectively realize the plan’s vision, including advancing the General Plan ‘themes’ of Ecological Health, County in Motion, Economic Prosperity, Dynamic Neighborhoods, and Quality By Design.

Some areas of the FLUM reflect what currently exists. Some are more aspirational in nature; others are a mix of what exists and what could be in the future. Some character areas depicted on the map and described later in the Character Areas technical appendix articulate how a given area should look and feel, even if that is not the case today. Others seek to retain and advance the current character.

Realization of the FLUM is a long-term endeavor: it could take several decades before all the land in the planning area is developed, redeveloped, or preserved. Realization of the FLUM is dependent on the factors that influence growth described above, including the inclinations of individual property owners. Revisions to the FLUM may be needed to reflect changing realities in the future. Modifications to the FLUM should be evaluated against the vision and policies in HoCo By Design to determine if the proposed changes are consistent or if a General Plan amendment is needed. County officials should also evaluate proposed changes to the FLUM using an “if-then-what-else” approach to decision making, whereby potential ripple effects or unintended consequences associated with a proposed change are evaluated to see what else might be impacted as a result. For example, a major economic development decision or if a regional or state transportation agency plans improvements for an area not previously anticipated in HoCo By Design.

Future Land Use Map Guidelines

The Future Land Use Map (FLUM) generally depicts the intended land use for an area. It is not a zoning map. A zoning map is parcel-specific and, combined with Zoning Regulations, establishes detailed requirements and development standards for setbacks, height, use, parking, and other attributes. By contrast, the FLUM is intended to provide generalized guidance for conservation and growth, and is considered in the context of other polices and recommendations in the General Plan. Even though specific parcel boundaries have been used in the FLUM to designate land uses, this map is not intended to be prescriptive at a parcel level. This map is to be interpreted broadly using land use categories to evaluate desired character area objectives around the County and is intended to provide guidance for future consideration.

A printed copy of the FLUM is available by request from the Department of Planning and Zoning. Several important considerations, defined below, accompany the FLUM:

1. The FLUM envisions intended development types, patterns, and intensities for build out of the County. It should be considered aspirational in nature. It is not an existing land use map, although in many cases future development intended for an area is the same as what exists there today.
2. Intended zoning for a specific area should be guided by the FLUM and interpreted with guidance from the text in the General Plan, including the Character Areas technical appendix.
3. Some zoning districts in the County’s Zoning Regulations may be compatible with more than one character area for the General Plan (or vice versa).
4. The FLUM can be amended. It is intended to be a dynamic map that is updated periodically in response to the evolving needs of or opportunities for the County. Requests to change the map are considered via General Plan Amendments (GPAs).

The Development Regulations Assessment and the FLUM

In 2016, DPZ retained Clarion Associates, a national land use firm, to assess the County’s current Zoning Regulations and Subdivision and Land Development Regulations. The Development Regulations Assessment engaged community members to explore strengths and weaknesses of existing land development regulations and recommendations for improvement. Through the process, nearly 500 community members participated in more than 40 meetings. This outreach and an online survey resulted in more than 700 comments.

From results of the evaluation and public engagement, the Development Regulations Assessment made recommendations on how to make these regulations more user-friendly, internally consistent, streamlined, and better aligned with County planning goals. The assessment proposed the creation of a Unified Development Ordinance that would provide all regulations within one easily accessible document, emphasizing user-friendly graphics and legibility. Additionally, the assessment included recommendations for new and existing uses and districts, district conversions or changes, and streamlined processes for the land development approval process.

The FLUM establishes greater predictability for the creation of a Unified Development Ordinance in line with the recommendations proposed in the Development Regulations Assessment. To provide greater specificity and guidance to the development of future regulations, HoCo By Design combines character areas, targeted focus area concepts, and a set of flexible policies developed through a design lens.

MAP 2-4: DETAILED FUTURE LAND USE MAP

The Future Land Use Map does not dictate zoning district boundaries but will be a guiding factor in the Comprehensive Rezoning and Map Amendment processes.

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• Planned Service Area
• Preservation Easement
• Open Space
• Historic Communities
• Rural Crossroads
• Rural Living
• Rural Conservation
• Single-Family Neighborhood
• Multi-Family Neighborhood
• Mixed-Use Neighborhood
• Suburban Commercial
• Campus
• Industrial
• Special Use
• Downtown Columbia
• Regional Activity Center
• Transit Activity Center
• Industrial Mixed-Use Activity Center
• Village Activity Center
• Mixed-Use Activity Center

Source: Howard County Departments of Technology and Communication Services and Planning and Zoning, 2023

Planning Themes Overview

The next five chapters, respectively covering five planning themes, present the land use and planning issues that were identified through the HoCo By Design process. These chapters explain how the County can strategically transform while preserving, strengthening, and enhancing the variety of places and assets that make Howard County so special.

The five planning themes, each described more fully in the next five chapters of the plan, include the following:

1. Ecological Health: Protecting and Preserving our Natural Resources
2. County in Motion: Fostering Modern Mobility Choices
3. Economic Prosperity: Creating Opportunities for Business to Innovate and Thrive
4. Dynamic Neighborhoods: Maintaining and Supporting Vibrant Living for a More Equitable Future
5. Quality By Design: Respecting and Prioritizing Community Character

Each theme chapter contains an introduction, summary of community input, and a series of topics with associated policies and implementing actions.

While themes describe cross-cutting issues, the policies and implementing actions within each chapter are grouped by topic. However, the policies and implementing actions will require a multi-faceted approach to their implementation.

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Ecological Health

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County in Motion

The themes were initially identified following public engagement activities in 2020, which include the following: On the Table events; Community Ideas Exchange Workshop; Better Communities Online Game; Physical Assessment focus groups and public meetings; and the Bring Your Own Question/BYOQ series. The physical assessment reports prepared in 2020, which covered a series of topics, also contributed to initial theme development.

In 2021, a combination of public input, data evaluation, and best practice research was used to further identify topics and develop policies and implementing actions. Scenario planning, the Growth Choices Workshops, New Town Columbia Design Sessions, Strategic Advisory Group meetings, Planning Advisory Committee meetings, Technical Advisory Group meetings, and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Focus Groups all contributed to the topics, policies, and actions explored in the planning theme chapters.

In 2022, a series of public meetings and online input opportunities allowed the community to comment on the planning theme chapters. In 2023, additional feedback was collected on the public draft. As a result of this public engagement, policies and implementing actions were further refined, as presented in the next five chapters.

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Economic Prosperity

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Dynamic Neighborhoods

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Quality By Design