0:09We've got one item on our agenda first off, please require pension action value report.
0:16Uh, and then we have a couple things into closed session.
0:18So I'm gonna go ahead and assume I'm kicking this over to Jim or Matthew and McCall, Matthew, whichever wants to grab the microphone.
0:30Okay, so we're gonna present the actual report.
0:33So we have Nita and Heidi from GRS, and they're gonna kind of go over the report, and then afterwards we have Mark Shigowski and David Sears from UBS, they're our investment portfolio managers, and they're just gonna talk a little about a little bit about the investments as well.
0:50So uh Mita and Heidi, if you guys are uh on and can hear us, uh, we'll let you get started.
0:59Our video is disabled for some reason.
1:02Okay, so the host has the level songs.
1:06All right, thanks, Mark.
1:07We'll get that to take care of it.
1:16Yes, you might show you how they can see that's a lot of technological advanced.
1:23Um I don't know, we have to accept it, I guess.
1:27Somebody accepts it on that side of the table.
1:36So mayor, is this an hour?
1:42I need to be oriented.
1:45Can everybody see it?
1:52Well, uh, good afternoon, everyone.
1:54Uh, my name is LesMeads well and presenting with me today is my associate.
2:02We are from Gabriel Rotterdam Company, and we are the actuaries for the police and fire retirement fund.
2:10Heidi and I are very pleased to have the opportunity to present the September 30th 2025 actual evaluation results of the retirement fund.
2:21If we can turn to slide two, Heidi.
2:25The purpose of the annual actual evaluation is twofold.
2:31One is to determine the employer contribution rates for both the police group as well as the fire group for the fiscal year ending September 30th, 2027.
2:44And the second very important reason is to measure the funding progress in relation to the actual cost contributing.
2:52And that's just a fancy way of saying what portion of the actual recruit liabilities, which means the liabilities associated with service that the police members and the fire members have already earned as of September 30th, 2025.
3:12What portion of those liabilities are covered by what we call the funding value of assets.
3:38Okay, this graph is meant to kind of give you an idea of part of the benefit of prefunding a system.
3:50So if you look at the green bar that's increasing over time, those are your benefits being paid out of the system.
3:59That's what we would call a typical pay as you go.
4:02And benefits are actually ready to be paid the system is paying it as it um occurs.
4:11In a pre-funded plan, at the very start of the plan, you're receiving employee and employer contributions, even though no benefits are being paid, and that money is being invested.
4:24So when you look at the horizontal line, which is the level payment below that horizontal dotted line is your employee and employer contributions coming in.
4:37So at the beginning of the plan, you can see to the left, not paying out as much in benefits as the contributions that are coming into the system.
4:46When you look at the section above the dotted horizontal blue line and the green lines, that is the amount of investment income that we are expecting to be able to help offset the employee and employer contributions to pay for benefits and expenses being paid out.
5:09So that's why it's really important to pre-fund.
5:15Now when we perform the actual evaluation, there are a lot of different variables that we need to take into account when we're calculating the employer contributions and the rest of the results that you see in that actual valuation report.
5:30We need to look at the census data, the uh asset data, and then um, well, in terms of the census data, we're looking at your active members who could potentially receive a benefit in the future.
5:44We're looking at retirees and beneficiaries who are currently receiving benefits, and then terminated vested members who may have maybe entitled to a benefit sometime in the future.
5:58The other three things we're looking at are benefit provisions, what the system is actually planning on paying its members when they retire, the actual assumptions, we need to make assumptions about things because we don't know what's going to happen in the future.
6:18So we have to make assumptions about when people retire, when people will die, how many people will quit and will they be eligible for benefit, or will they just receive their refunded contributions?
6:31A lot of different assumptions that we need to make to uh determine the cost, and then we need an actual funding method, and this is how you pay or the system pays for those benefits over time.
6:45So there were no benefit provision changes, actual assumption or funding method changes.
6:51So I'm gonna focus on the census and asset data that we received as of September 30, 2025.
7:00So first, when we look at the active number, we do have it split out between the police and the fire funds.
7:06So for police, there was a big change in the active member population from 2024 to 2025.
7:16Uh, you can see the number went from 136 active members to 153, and this does include drop numbers as well.
7:26The payroll increase from 11.6 million to 12.5 million.
7:31That was a pretty large increase of about 8.4 percent overall.
7:36And then when you look at the fire group, you can see a little bit different.
7:41We see that the number actually decreases from 2024.
7:45So we had 168 active numbers, and that decreased to 163, and the total payroll actually decreased slightly from 13.6 million to 13.3 million.
7:58So those become important later on when we get into the actual results.
8:07Moving on to the uh retiree and beneficiary populations for the police fund, there were four new either retirees from active retiree from vested or new beneficiaries.
8:24We have four people come on with 272,000 in the annual benefits, five people were deceased, and it removed about 50,000 from annual rules.
8:36So we see an overall increase in the annual benefits of about three percent, and it goes from 6.8 million to 7 million with about just over 200 uh participants or recipients.
8:52For the fire fund, we see nine new retirees again from either active tested or as survivor of a retiree who has disease, and that annual benefit added is 537,000, and we had six people removed or deceased with 131,000.
9:15So again, we see a about a 4% increase in the annual benefits being paid out, and just under 10 million.
9:28Now we're gonna look at the asset data.
9:30Um, the market value reported as of September 30, 2025 was in row B, that's 224 million.
9:41Um that was actually a good return.
9:45If you look in row E1, we had a 19 million dollar investment uh gain for the year, and that was about 9.3% of a market return.
9:58Our assumption is six and a quarter percent.
10:00Our assumption is six and a quarter percent, so we did better than expected for the year.
10:05So that additional gain that the system receives, we smooth that out over four-year period rather than just using the market value because the market value from year to year can be pretty volatile, and smoothing it out over four years reduces some of that volatility.
10:24So in section F, you'll see four rows there.
10:29Again, we're smoothing out means and losses over four years.
10:32So in that 2025 column, we have gains of a quarter of the gains and losses from 2022 to 2025 reflected here.
10:44And you'll notice um, so for F1 against the current year, that's 1.7 million.
10:51But you'll notice if you look in row F4, that 9.5 million is a portion of the 2022 loss that was incurred, and this is the last year.
11:042025 is the last year that that loss is going to be recognized.
11:07So going forward, it's gone.
11:10So we have a total in row F5 a 1.3 million dollar gain that we recognize for 2025.
11:19But if you look in the future, I'll go back to 2026 to 28 in a minute to explain the big difference there.
11:28So we end up in G5 with a funding value of 203 million, which is about 21 million less than our market value of 224.
11:39That 21 million is a gain that we expect to be recognized over the next three years.
11:45So if we look at 2026, we are currently sitting on a 10.9 million dollar investment gain that needs to be recognized.
11:54We obviously don't know what 2026 is gonna look like yet, and that will determine ultimately what that row F5 is going to look like, whether it's gonna have additional gains or losses in there, but right now it's the fund is in a good position.
12:10Um, where if you compare it 2025, it's significantly lower, and again, that's because of that 2022 loss disappearing.
12:22So now I'm gonna pass it back to you, Nita to go over uh the actual employer contribution rates.
12:30Okay, uh, thank you, Abby.
12:32So there are two components to the computed employer contribution rate.
12:38One is what we call the normal cost of benefits, and that's the cost of the active member accruing an additional year of service rate.
12:48So given that we have some individuals or both the police and fire groups covered under what we call the pre-October one and 2020 12 benefit provisions, they have a different normal cost than those individuals higher on or after October 1st, 2012.
13:09Uh, because of the differing benefit provisions uh between those two uh those two groups.
13:17So if we take a look at the numbers on the left-hand column, the normal cost for a police active member who are covered by the pre-uh 2012 benefit provisions is 25.22 percent in total for those covered by the post, it's 16.09 percent, or a weighted average between the two of 19.32 percent.
13:44Now the members make contributions to the system as well, either three and a half or four and a half percent for the police group on an weighted average, it's 4.13 percent as of September 30th, 2025.
13:59The difference between those two numbers is the cost to the employer for the police group of those active members accruing an additional year of service credit, so it's 15.19% for the fire group, the total normal cost for the pre-2012 uh active members is 50.9 percent for the post-group 24.33 or a weighted average of total of 33.27.
14:32The members, depending upon it, they're pre- or post 2012 buyers contribute either 16.32 percent or four or a weighted average of 8.41 percent.
14:44The difference between the 33.27 and the point four one is the employer portion of the normal cost for the fire group of 24.86 percent.
14:56I'm gonna ask a quick question before you go on.
15:00I just your like your your ampersand um signal there, and this is probably just a really naive question that says there are currently no police members in the pre-2012 group.
15:11But we have we have people that were before, right?
15:15I mean, like you guys were all hired in 2005.
15:17Well, not you, Mark, but you were 2012.
15:19You're probably still free.
15:20So wouldn't they be in that group?
15:24No, that's a that's an excellent question.
15:26And one I've always actually struggled with.
15:29Um for the pre for the pre-2012 group.
15:36I'll see your emails by the way.
15:37Yeah, email as well.
15:39You're sharing your email.
15:41I think heidi is Heidi, you're sharing your email.
15:45Heidi, I think you're showing your email instead of the presentation.
15:49Lucky for us, there was nothing damaging.
15:52You have a lot of unready those, but other things being for the pre-2012 police group, the individuals that had a three and a half percent member contribution rate for whatever reason were called non-contributory, and there was another group that was called contributory that contributed eight point something percent.
16:19Uh I can't remember the exact figure.
16:21There's no individuals that are covered, that's the contributory group we're referring to when we call uh that there's no individuals in that group.
16:33There's actually two versions of the contributory group, one contributing 3.5, and before there were some other lease active members covered by the pre-2012 provision that contributed 8.00 percent for whatever reason, the 8.0 group was called the contributory group, and for reasons I've never fully understood the ones that contribute 3.5 percent was considered the non-contributory group for the pre-2012 provisions.
17:05I know that explanation is clear as mud, um it's as clear as mud for me as well.
17:12I'm not sure why that Orwellian language was used before, but we've just continued that that language 24.
17:21But at the end of the day, we think that all of the pre-2012 police officers are contributing three and a half percent here.
17:30So no one's contributing eight point something percent.
17:38So in a perfect world, if our assets equaled our actual accrued liabilities, and we had no unfunded accrued liabilities, that would be the employer normal cost would be the contribution rate.
17:52Unfortunately, we do have unfunded actual accrued liabilities for various reasons.
17:58You know, one can be actuarial experience, just wasn't as good as what we expected.
18:05Not this, you know, not just this year, previous years, it's accumulation over many many years.
18:12There might be a benefit change that either increased or decreased the accrued liability that wasn't funded in the past and is funded going forward, but that's another reason that the unfunded accrued liability can go up.
18:29Another reason is the revision of expectations going forward.
18:35So, for example, in the last experience study, an experience study is the study where we take a look over the five or seven-year period, uh you know, the period of time isn't fixed, but generally it's usually anywhere from four to seven years, and we say, Okay, let's take a look and see how the assumptions did versus what we actually thought they were going to do, especially on the demographic side, and say, do we need to revise that going forward?
19:09In addition to that, I didn't mention that the investment return assumption is six and a quarter percent prior to the last experience that we changed.
19:21That assumption was seven percent.
19:24So, to the extent that if we think we're going to earn less money going forward on the assets of the system, that increases the liabilities.
19:36The reason being is for public employer retirement systems, the investment return assumption is used as the discount rate to determine the actual accrued liabilities and hence the unfunded actual accrual liabilities.
19:54So, given the fact that we do have unfunded actual accrued liabilities, currently they're amortized over a 26 year period.
20:02So for the police group, an additional 28.74% of payroll contribution is needed to amortize that unfunded accrued liability.
20:14And for the police group is 34.31% for a total computed employer contribution rate for fiscal year 2027 of 43.93% for the police group and 59.17% for the fire group.
20:37The last valuation for the police group was 46.57.
20:41So that went down to 43.93.
20:44And for the fire group, it was 60.56 in the 2024 valuation declining to 59.17%.
20:54In dollar terms, uh in fiscal year 2027, those percentages sort of compute to roughly about a 5.8 million dollar employer contribution for police, and that's that's an estimate, and roughly about an 8.3 million dollar employer contribution for the fire group.
21:16If we can just slide nine, I think.
21:23So the other reason to perform the valuation was to see how we are how well we're funded versus the liabilities that we've computed for service as of September 30th, 2025.
21:41So for the police group, the value of that actual approved liability is 139 million 65,59, which is the third row of numbers that you can see there.
21:56Of that 139 million, 92.6 million of that liability is associated with individuals that have already left active employment, those are our retirees and beneficiaries, and that does not include drop members for the fighter group, the total accrued liability is about 213 million, the third row there, 144 million of which is associated with individuals already in payment status.
22:27So roughly two-thirds of our liabilities are associated with individuals already in payment status.
22:35If you take the funding value of assets for the police and fire groups, so the 73.1 million for the police group and 129.9 million for the fire group, we subtract that from the liabilities, we get the unfunded accrued liability of 65.8 million for the police group and 83 million for the fire group.
22:58If we divide our assets by our liabilities, we get what we call the total percent funded.
23:05So for the police group, that's 53%, and for the fire group that's 61% in total, it's 58% for the entire fund.
23:15Those numbers, while they are lower than we would like to see, it's it's encouraging that they are higher than the last year.
23:26So 53% for the police group last year was 51%, and for the fire group, 61% last year was 57%.
23:35So that's a very encouraging uh valuation result this year.
23:40You know, we have a question.
23:44What are the um standard percent funded?
23:49So if we're at 53,61, what would what would the normal typical funding look like percentage ratio?
24:02Um, I wish I could tell you that there is a normal or typical funded ratio.
24:08Um it is all across the board, and generally speaking, I think public safety systems are generally less well funded than uh what I'll say systems covering general employees or um, let's say teacher employees, but you can have a wide range of funded ratios, like for example, in statewide systems.
24:41For example, the statewide systems in the state of Missouri, the funded ratios there range from anywhere in the 50s and 60s to very close to 100% for whatever statewide systems that I'm quite familiar with.
24:57So there really is no norm.
25:01Um is there not a standard framework for that kind of thing?
25:08There's not a standard framework for a few reasons.
25:12One of the reasons being the funded ratio or funded ratio is dependent upon the actual assumptions that the system uses, and what I'll suggest is for the most part, I think we're quite comfortable with the assumptions that are in place for um the retirement fund.
25:37The one area that in the experience study would probably look at a little bit is pay increases, and that's one of the reasons that when I suggested that public safety funded ratios have been under more strain, I'll suggest than other occupations.
25:57Is it's been a very challenging period, let's say over the last five years for public safety occupations, and I'm probably you don't need me to tell you that to entice individuals to uh in the recruiting environment or to to keep police or firefighters on the rolls.
26:21We've seen significant pay increases for those two types of occupations.
26:27We've seen it as well for general employees and teachers, but not to the extent for for public safety.
26:33Secondarily, is the stress of those jobs over the last five years might make it that they're retiring sooner than they otherwise would have, uh for example, than the other occupations, so that that's where you can't make any uniform judgment between the funded ratios for, for example, for Columbia and another municipality or political subdivision of the state of Missouri or in any other state.
27:05So there's no way for us there's just no way.
27:12I mean, sorry, Christina answer your question or ask your question.
27:16There's just no way it's just uncalculable to have a standard framework here, is what you're telling me.
27:28And so the other question I had was on slide seven.
27:32Um, I don't know if we want to switch topics or what, but um or I guess I have the it under a different slide, but you were talking about the actuarial underfunding can be caused by different things, such as expertise funding wasn't set at the right amount, blah blah all those reasons you gave.
27:52But one of the things I didn't hear was like um uh when you don't want to ask this, um when the expertise isn't what it's is expected, you you reference the experience um experience uh five-year study um to conduct and validate any type of assumptions, correct?
28:29And so when we do those type of studies, what would be the difference between that and like an audit that would go in?
28:39Because in your report that you had presented, you said this is specifically not an audit, it is just a report of I don't remember the exact wording, I don't have a report pulled up, but um, that was referenced in the beginning letter, it was very explicit, it wasn't an audit.
28:58So, what would be the benefit of doing that versus having something like um an experience study performed?
29:12Um okay, so I think there's two different questions there.
29:16I don't like and remember using the term audit in the presentation today, and then if I didn't, maybe you can remind me where that where that was used.
29:28I think the audit is referenced in our annual value, our full annual valuation report.
29:36And when we say we don't audit the information provided, what we mean by that is so when we receive the membership information from Matthew and James, we do some smell checks to make sure that the data looks reasonable compared to the prior years.
30:05If we have some some data questions, you know, this paying piece looks a little bit odd, or this date of birth change, or whatever the case may be, but we don't do a full audit of the membership data that's provided to us for the financial statements.
30:21We don't do an audit of the financial statements that are provided to us.
30:26The in that instance, we accept the financials at face value.
30:32Unless there's something obvious in the financials, we say this just can't be right.
30:37We'll come back to the system and say it.
30:40But that's where like your actual auditor of the system would audit the financials.
30:48I don't think they would audit the membership data either.
30:51Um we're just trying to disclose in our main valuation report that we've looked at the reasonability of the data we use for its valuation process, but we have not performed any full audit.
31:06Now I can kind of audit you might be referring to.
31:12I kind of want to hear what he has to say.
31:14Yeah, I was gonna talk about the audio.
31:17You don't think you're answering the question you're asking?
31:19I think he might but go ahead.
31:21I want to hear from his perspective.
31:22I say that's why we're still talking.
31:26The the other audit that you might be referring to is an actuarial audit of our work, and that's where another actuary comes in and says, okay, you know, GRS has done these calculations.
31:43Um we are going to audit the results of their calculations to ensure that basically they're not doing something really wrong for lack of a better chart of saying that, and to assess the reasonability of the assumptions used for valuation purposes.
32:03So for example, I've performed actual audits on numerous other systems, generally statewide.
32:11But uh trying to think if I've done uh municipal thing, and I've had recommendations and things of that nature.
32:19Um, and I've had our work at GRS is audited um probably the most in the country.
32:28The reason being is we perform the most public sector actual evaluations in the country.
32:35So um we're very comfortable with our work being audited.
32:40Um so it depends upon you know what the purpose of the actual audit is.
32:47Now the question about the experience study, that's different from an actual audit.
32:54That that's a um a process of saying, okay, you know, every five years or so, let's just make sure that the actual assumptions that are used to develop the liabilities, the contribution rates that we're presenting today are still reasonable going forward.
33:15And I'll give you an example of something that really changed over the last let's say 20 years, and for most public employer retirement systems, if you were to go from the you know 90s to the early 2000s, the very very common investment assumption for evaluation purposes was 8%, and the reason it was eight percent was because of the capital market expectations of the various asset classes looking forward, doesn't matter historical results, it's we go to investment experts, like you'll hear from uh the gentleman today.
34:02We look at other investment experts around the country, we actually keep track of I think it's roughly about 12 to 14, and so you know, based upon how you're investing your assets for the city of Columbia, and their capital market expectations going forward on those various asset classes, is the investment return assumption still a reasonable assumption, and what we've seen over the last 20 years or so is that the capital market expectations, for example, let's say fixed income, fixed income in the early 2000s would have been expected to earn a lot more than it was for example, let's say you know, three or four years ago when interest rates were were almost zero.
34:51So fixed income is one of the asset classes that would have seen probably a very significant decline over that time period at least.
35:00Um we've seen that in the uh domestic equities uh pretty much almost uniformly with the asset classes under considerations.
35:14So that's the purpose of an experience that hopefully I've had the answer to your question, but I'm happy to retry it by that.
35:23I'm ready to move on.
35:27You can go on, Mina.
35:36So given the fact that our calculations are based upon assumptions, we're not arrogant enough to believe that we're gonna get everything exactly right, that all of our assumptions are going to be met moving forward, and that there's no not going to be any deviation between actual experience going forward and um what we assume going forward.
36:03So we try and just give the board some some sense of if something were to happen differently than we expected, what does that actually mean?
36:16So the one the columns I would like you to focus on are the second and third from the right hand side, the total funding value of assets divided by total payroll and the total accrued liability divided by total payroll.
36:33So for the police fund, our assets are roughly about 5.8 times our payroll.
36:41If we were 100% funded, meaning that our assets actually equaled our actual accrued liability, it's 11.1 times payroll.
36:52So if the police fund experienced a 10% asset loss, which remember our starting point isn't zero, so it's not a return of minus 10%.
37:05Our starting point expectation is that the fund will earn 6.25 percent.
37:11So a 10% asset loss in our world would be a market value return of minus 3.75, which is not implausible at all.
37:22If that were to happen, if we had a 10% asset loss, that's basically 58% of payroll for the police fund.
37:31And if you look at the number below for the fire fund, that's 97% of payroll.
37:37That's almost like a full year's worth of payroll.
37:40So one year of asset loss, if you wanted to pay it off immediately, it's almost like you would have to say, okay, we're gonna pay the firefighters this year, and we're gonna make an additional 100% of payroll contribution into the system as well.
37:58Now, obviously, we don't ask the system to finance that asset loss over one year period, we amortize it over the 26-year period, but it just gives a sense of volatility or the potential volatility of the uh employer contribution rate.
38:18The one of the other reasons I talked about public safety type retirement systems having more challenges, I'll say it that way, then uh teacher and retirement systems is police and fire retirement systems generally have earlier retirement conditions, and generally speaking, higher benefit multipliers than say a general system or a teacher system, which means that you have to have more assets into the system with the pre-funding to finance those liabilities, it's it's just the nature of the beast, but the more assets you have to finance those benefits, the potential there is for more volatility in both the funded ratio as well as the computed employer contribution.
39:17So we just try and make the board aware of that.
39:20Um, because we think that's important.
39:23A very just if we look at the funding ratio on the left-hand side, those are very encouraging statistics.
39:31Um at least with respect to the trend.
39:36So if you look at the funded ratio, and let's go on the market with assets in 2021 for the police fund, we were at 58.
39:44In 2022, that would down to 46 percent in one year.
39:49So that's a significant decline of funding ratio, and that's the uh fiscal year 2022 return that Heidi was talking about.
40:01We have to recognize 25 percent of that experience, but you can see in less than well, in three years, that 46 percent if we were to use the market value of assets to um be the denominator for the funded ratio, we're back up to 55, so that's encouraged.
40:22Similarly for the fire fund, we were at 61 percent back in 2021.
40:28It went down to 48 percent, which was quite discouraging, but we're all the way back up to 67 percent within a four-year period, so those are very encouraging statistics, and with that, I'm going to ask for the next slide, and I think we're back to that.
40:48Okay, just gonna spend a few more minutes summarizing everything we kind of talked about a little bit here.
40:55So for the police group, a total computed employer contribution rate, the fiscal year 2027 is 43.93 percent, which is a decrease from the fiscal year 2026 contribution rate of 46.57, and there are a few reasons why that number decreased.
41:19So, first, we know that the system had better investment experience than what we expected.
41:28Um, it was higher than the six and a quarter percent assumption that we have.
41:34Another big reason for the change is in particular for the police.
41:40I mentioned earlier that that total payroll increase by 8.4 percent.
41:46That was much higher than our assumption of 2.75 percent.
41:50So we were developing a percent of payroll contribution, that denominator was a lot higher than we expected it to be, which brought the rate down.
42:02Um, and then we did recognize the system did receive an additional 500,000 dollars in employer contribution for fiscal year 2025, and that was also a contributor to the decrease, and this was partially offset by higher individual pay increases than expected, but overall we saw a gain for the police group, and um already had mentioned that over time once that unfunded piece is gone, or if theoretically that funded piece goes away, the normal cost is going to decrease to that post 10.1 2012 benefit plan, and even without the even with an unfunded once the system is composed of all 10.1 2012 post employees, that rate will be what uh that second-tier rate that we talked about a little bit earlier.
43:05Is um and then for the fire group, the 2000 the fiscal year 2027 player contribution rate decreased from 60.56 to 59.17, and again, due to the investment experience being better than what we expected, we did end up with the fire side seeing more retired deaths than expected, um, lower payroll pay increases than expected, and again an additional 500 employer contributions was received in fiscal year 2025.
43:44So all of those uh contributed to lowering that employer contribution rate.
44:03And we did take that into account when we developed the employer contribution rates.
44:08So that additional money has been reflected in the rates that we've shown from the chart.
44:15Um the second bullet in September 30 in the September 30, 2021 valuation, the amortization period was extended from 25 years to 30 years.
44:30So if that had not occurred, um, and the amortization period had stayed at 25 years in the 2021 valuation, then that amortization period would have been 21 years for this 2025 actual valuation.
44:51So we decided to calculate what the employer contribution rate would look like using a 21 year amortization period rather than the 26 years that is hasn't been adopted.
45:07And those numbers would be 48.28% for police and 64.35% for fiber.
45:15And then finally, we talked a lot about the experience study.
45:29So it's been about five years, and we anticipate that we're going to recommend to the board that we perform an experience study prior to the September 30, 2026 actual valuation.
45:46And with that that is all of our prepared comments, but we'd be happy to take any other questions.
46:00So I actually have two questions.
46:01The first one is what is an experience study.
46:07And uh we did talk about a little bit.
46:10So the experience study is where we will take a look at all of the economic and demographic assumptions that we are currently using, and we'll compare that to the actual experience that the system has over the past five years.
46:30So if we think that an assumption needs to be adjusted to maybe be closer to what the experience is actually shown, we will make any recommended recommended changes after performing this or while like performing the experience study.
46:50It looks at our assumptions to make sure they're still valid, or whether or not a change might need to be made.
46:57And you don't take it in too much detail since you're gonna do it again.
47:00So Betsy has another question.
47:01I have another question for you.
47:03So I know Christina asked, um, I think she was trying to ask, like, like what, or at least I want to ask, what should we be aiming for for these pension funds?
47:13Because it seems like most of us would like 100%.
47:18Well and yet standard.
47:22Okay, and so if we're doing that, why are you recommending that we can decrease our contributions?
47:28I mean, it's great that we've had some good years of return.
47:33Okay, that's what I did.
47:35Doesn't actually decrease it.
47:41Let me let me let me try and uh address that one.
47:46So the contribution rates that we've showed, we're not recommending that the contribution rates decrease.
47:55The contribution rates that we've showed are a reflection of given the current amortization period and your current assumptions.
48:05That is the result of the calculations.
48:08One of the reasons that we included the additional calculation of reducing the amortization period for the September 30th, 2025 valuation from 26 years down to 21 years, was for that exact reason that given the current funded status of both the police and fire groups.
48:34We think it would be reasonable to shorten that amortization period and if the employer contribution rate back up to the higher contribution rates over the 21-year amortization period.
48:50So I think I I wouldn't say that we're recommending the contribution rates that we've showed on the previous slide, those are the contribution rates that would be computed based upon already adopted methodology for the valuation.
49:12We're we're we're more than happy when we see our uh systems contribute contribution amounts above and beyond the computed contribution based upon adopted procedures so far, especially in situations where the funded status is also just much lower than we would like it to be.
49:46Okay, move on to investments.
49:50You want to introduce them, Jim.
49:51Uh yeah, Mark, David.
49:53Um, you guys can go ahead and start your presentation now.
50:00You know, I don't know if we ever heard your answer to the question before.
50:03Maybe there's a moment we can circle back some other time.
50:07Probably, but we don't have two years.
50:18Jim, can you hear me also?
50:20And just so you know, you guys got about 10 minutes, so we're kind of on a hard deadline.
50:24So we're going to shorten up.
50:28So we're going to short up the agenda.
50:29Thank you to the council for having us present or over the case of fire tension on the investment side.
50:35We were going to do a market overview and then go into the pension.
50:38Why don't we do the quick overview?
50:40Just want anybody want to talk about the markets at all, or what is that now?
50:44I think we should just go into the portfolio.
50:48So on the portfolio, a couple things.
50:51Um I think uh one of the questions was asked by one of the council people is you know, why is the funding where it is?
50:58And we go through a couple different things.
51:00One is we're gonna put up a chart data as of right now, bottom right hand corner.
51:05It shows the sources of portfolio value.
51:07So we started working with the pension in the city around uh late 2009, and you can see when we got on onto the pension in 2009.
51:20The top line is the growth of the portfolio, the police and buyer pension, the bottom line are the contributions and the withdrawals from the pension since 2009.
51:30So you can see there's a bit of drawdown of the actual dollars coming out of pension since 2009, but the growth has been thankfully the markets and our expertise have grown the portfolio.
51:41Prior to 2009, the pension fund was invested 15 percent in stocks and bonds or 50 percent cash, which caused a big drag on the earnings.
51:52That was a decision long before Matthew was there, and long before two other finance department uh heads.
51:58That was not a decision by anybody sitting in the room.
52:01The decisions being made now from this portfolio is stabilized it actually.
52:06And also the other thing is we would go back to the agenda.
52:10Uh times are standard.
52:12So when we talk about contributions into the portfolio, there's two things going on.
52:18Um the contribution to the city has made a one million dollar deposit in 2025, nothing yet in 2026.
52:26But because of the way the portfolio was put together pre-2009, uh, actually, there's money coming out of the portfolio every so often to meet benefits.
52:38So year to date, the pension has been paid out 350,000 to meet benefits to the police and buyer personnel.
52:46And in 2025, the city did make a one million dollar contribution, but withdrew 665,000 okay.
52:54So for the newer members of the council, and this has nothing to do with MEDA or us, the way the portfolio was set up and is not abnormal, is the current police and fire employees are paying benefits into those contributions, but those contributions do not hit this portfolio that we're investing.
53:13It's kind of a closed portfolio this at this point, other than deposits from the city.
53:18Those benefits are collected and actually are paid to current pensioners in the portfolio.
53:24So part of the underfunding has to do with the benefits not going in, they benefit payments withheld not going into the portfolio.
53:33We have a question on that.
53:35So there's a couple things going on here.
53:40Okay, so David, you want to kick it off?
53:45Yeah, I guess just to dig in a little bit to the actual portfolio.
53:49So this here is on the left-hand side, I'll try to make it bigger.
53:55This is the current most recent investment pool, uh, 238 million as of the end of May.
54:03And it's uh it's diversified.
54:05Uh these are all the investment categories.
54:08I mean, where from broadly fixed income and bonds, equity of stocks, um then even within the stocks is diversified amongst US, international, and then different types of stocks.
54:22You can't see it within this page, but uh there is an index funds as well as what we call active managers, so it's a deliberate mix to get to a target allocation, and that target allocation has been meant to um you know grow the assets and achieve the actual rate of return, and of all investment fees, the most uh the more recent performance.
54:47This is just a snapshot of the of what's currently been going on.
54:50Uh the calendar year, so this includes the the market drop in April, and then the rebound.
55:00Um so there was a significant drop, but even with that first five months of the year, the portfolio is up about 10 million, 9.6 million or 4.19%, and then since the fiscal year start of uh call it 10.1 of last year, portfolio is up 14.3.
55:18Um, you know, still more time to go, but uh Vita had mentioned the actual rear return to six and a quarter percent, the fiscal year year to state return is six point three nine percent so far.
55:32Um just quickly show you what more look at the portfolio.
55:37I had mentioned the different managers.
55:39So the previous page was looking at the types of investments.
55:43This page looks at the uh the allocation to third party investment managers or professionals that invest those in those different categories.
55:54So I just mentioned with a mixture of low cost indexes as well as active managers, and our job is to monitor all of this to make sure that value is being added to the to the section.
56:12We still have four minutes.
56:14Um we could uh touch on high level view of our our our outlook on the markets, unless there's more specific questions about what we covered so far.
56:26One we can cover the market in about two and a half minutes on one or two pages real fast.
56:33Okay, so David, go to the FOMO page.
56:36Okay, so this may look odd to you, but uh in our business like other ones we use acronyms to describe what's going on in the market.
56:46So the biggest question is what's going on geopolitically, what's going on in this country?
56:50Why is the stock market still going up and what's likely to happen in the next six months to a year?
56:56Going into the midterm election is the biggest one.
56:59So we sat around, and I don't have to remember we came out of uh COVID a few years ago.
57:04Um the stock market went up very quickly, and the term was quite coined for FOMO, which is the fear of missing out.
57:11So as the market was going up really quickly, investors were fearful that they were missing out on the returns because their neighbors and friends and sold their portfolios up you know 10%, 15%.
57:22So the money flowed in as the economy started coming out of COVID was FOMO.
57:27Where you are right now is FOMO, which is fear of missing out on peace.
57:32Okay, so people are going into the market of combination of FOMO, and very concerned that as soon as peace is declared in Iran or say some more moves are straightened out, the market is going to go up as with call to repeat brown.
57:47So we're at the stage of fear of missing out on peace.
57:51All right, the last one is the fact that earnings are very real.
57:56So if you think about when we had liberation day uh last year, about this time, the market went down real quickly.
58:02The city, every major corporation, every professional association went back to their books of business and their businesses and said, Let's eject any manufacturing that we do, it's losing money that's not profitable.
58:16The city tightened up its belts, okay, and professional organizations did the same thing and started firing people, and so what happened was revenue started increasing in this year, and the earnings are very strong.
58:31Throwing also look at um AI, which is artificial intelligence, making manufacturing making our business easier, and profitability is going up on top of that, and those companies supplying it are actually making money, not like what happened in 1999 and 2000 with the tech bubble.
58:49So the pyramid of fantastic earnings momentum is on the next slide to show it.
58:56So there's barge targeting.
58:59All right, so what we're seeing is you look at earnings starting 2021, which is COVID, and then it popped out, and earnings started going 10%, 12%.
59:08We're looking for the full year this year for earnings and the SP 500 to be up 20%.
59:13Yes, that's concentrated in the tech stocks, not just the magnetic seven.
59:17We're seeing stocks going up 10, 20, 30 percent, and that earnings we think are going to continue into next year at 12%, which is above the norm.
59:26So the uh fantastic earnings momentum and the peace dividend are helping us uh bring this market forward.
59:33It could take one thing that we don't know about to stop this, but right now this is what's driving the market.
59:39Any questions on that?
59:45No, I think that was it.
59:46Thank you for the quick market rundown in two minutes.
59:50Appreciate that, right?
59:52Three acronyms covers it.
59:54So I think I'll throw yeah.
59:58I'll just have one last before we go into our post session.
1:00:00You know, you talked about um our employer contribution.
1:00:03We started that a couple years ago about putting the additional million dollars into this.
1:00:07You mentioned that that's going into the portfolio.
1:00:09So is that still your recommendation that we continue that practice?
1:00:12Because you have it, obviously, the actuary have it in their assumption, and you have it in your forecasting this that it's still happening.
1:00:21So that's really a city call.
1:00:24I want Crystal Hall.
1:00:26The constraints are the constraints are really the budget of the city and what the city can afford to put into the pension at this point.
1:00:34Again, the problem with the pension started potentially um over two decades ago.
1:00:38Okay, mayor two decades.
1:00:41Thanks for that non-answer, Mark.
1:00:43No, I appreciate it.
1:00:44I know you couldn't give us advice.
1:00:46I was just had a try.
1:00:48Okay, not a problem.
1:00:50Well, I'm gonna go ahead and close this portion of it.
1:00:53If you guys want to shut down the Zoom on this, thank you all so much.
1:00:56Appreciate uh your your working with our staff on this.
1:01:00Um, all right, so thanks so much, and have a good uh holiday July 4th.
1:01:07I'll make a motion.
1:01:08Uh I moved that the city council of the city of Columbia, Missouri to immediately go into a closed meeting and conference room 1A1B of City Hall to discuss legal actions, causes of action, or litigation involving a public governmental body and confidential or privilege communications between a public governmental body, its representatives and its attorneys pursuit to section 610 02.0211 of the revised statutes of Missouri and preparation, including any discussions or work product on behalf of a public governmental body or its representatives for negotiations with employee groups pursued to section 610 610.0219 of the revised statutes of Missouri.
1:01:39Can I have a second?
1:01:47Nick, yes, Christina, yes, Betsy, yes, Barbara, yes, Valerie.