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Record of Proceedings

Erie Town Council Special Meeting – July 29, 2025: Economic Outlook, Compensation Study, and 2026 Budget Forecast

Town Council — Tuesday, July 29, 2025
BodyErie, Colorado
SessionTown Council
DateTuesday, July 29, 2025
StatusFILED
Video Record
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Transcript — Verbatim
1:44

I'm gonna call to order the uh town of Erie Town Council meeting on July twenty-ninth, twenty twenty-five.

1:51

Will you put please rise and join me in the budget of allegiance?

1:56

I Pledge of Agents for the Stands, one nation with liberty and justice or all.

2:15

Okay, will our town court please take roll?

2:24

Here present council member Mortalero.

2:33

Here.

2:34

Council member Hoback.

2:35

Here.

2:36

We have quorum.

2:37

All right.

2:38

Sounds good.

2:38

Do we have a motion to approve the agenda tonight?

2:42

So second.

2:46

Who is the second?

2:49

All in favor say aye.

2:51

Aye.

2:51

Aye.

2:52

All opposed say no.

2:54

Motion carries.

2:55

All right.

2:56

And do we have anybody signed up for public comment tonight?

3:00

We do not.

3:01

Okay, then we're gonna move right into general business, of which we have three topics tonight.

3:06

Uh we have a presentation from Rich Robicine, uh, University of Colorado Lead School of Business.

3:12

Um then we're gonna move on to a compensation market uh study, and then last um we'll spend our time on our budget forecast and assumptions.

3:22

Uh so with that, what I'd like to do is turn it over to Rich.

3:25

Um, Rich is from the Leeds School of Business.

3:27

Um, I've known Rich uh for some times, who's uh one of my instructors actually when I was at Leeds uh getting my MBA, and he's here to give us a um what I'll say is a macro view of um the economy.

3:39

Um he does this for a number of municipalities in the state of Colorado as well.

3:43

So that Rich, I'll turn it over to you.

3:46

Thank you so much for inviting me, and and we're talking about you know, the concept of putting all of this in context.

3:53

Uh you know, the more uncertainty there is, the more people want to hear you tell them how calm everything is and how good everything is.

4:02

So this is part of the issue that we have going on right now.

4:05

I was kind of joking uh earlier.

4:08

This is like the fifty-sixth presentation since January first that we've done out of our office.

4:14

Uh there's just a lot of people uh concerned about what I mean.

4:20

So do I need to do the next uh you can do next.

4:24

I think you can roll the mouse though, roll this.

4:27

Okay, okay, thank you.

4:29

So we're getting a lot of mixed signals from the national economy.

4:33

Well, first.

4:34

I realize you have a long night, Tuesday nights or long nights, and you have three budget.

4:39

So I'm gonna hit some of this stuff fairly quickly.

4:42

And the goal here ultimately is leaving time for you to ask questions if you have questions.

4:48

And pretty much everybody we talk to has questions.

4:51

So you would not you'd be alone if you didn't have any questions about you know what how we're thinking about things or you know, and what that might be.

5:00

Uh the the presentation in general focuses up front on the national economy, output, employment, and so on, setting in context, then focus it, does some state comparisons there, then focuses in on state, and then there's some uh Boulder Weld County combination data uh sort of at the end that's cultivated, you know, specifically for this presentation.

5:25

So, bottom line, uh a lot of mixed signals.

5:28

The arrows that are in yellow or in sort of in the middle, the arrows that are in red are bad news, and you can see a couple of green hour uh arrows that are up.

5:38

We still feel pretty positive about employment, we still have good consumption in the overall economy.

5:44

And the reason we focus so much on that is because consumption is about 70% of GDP.

5:50

Uh it filters down to the state level at the same sort of uh pieces, and it filters down very much to the local and and town city level when we talk about retail sales and retail sales tax revenues.

6:03

So it's a key driver uh when we're looking at that.

6:06

You know, if you ask me about long-term economic growth, it's certainly things like business investment and so on.

6:11

Um I'm not gonna make the case that consumption is the best thing that an economy can do, but certainly for day to day and for GDP and so on, it's very important.

6:21

So what's ISM?

6:23

Oh, I think I have one in later, but Institute for Supply Management.

6:29

Okay, it's a purchasing manager survey.

6:31

So ISM is uh a survey that they do of businesses, uh, and the this one is particularly manufacturing, and 50 above 50 is optimism, below 50 is pessimism, and nationally the manufacturing index has been below 50 for three months, but it's been below 50 many of the months for the last two years.

6:53

So you the manufacturing sector nationwide is not particularly healthy uh at this point, and that's sort of a critical sort of uh business indicator.

Discussion Breakdown — Share of Meeting
Economic Development█████████████████████████████29%
Fiscal Sustainability████████████████████████24%
Personnel Matters██████████████████18%
Budget Equity Analysis███████7%
Procedural█████5%
Parks and Recreation████4%
Affordable Housing███3%
Tourism Regulation██2%
Workforce Development██2%
Summary of Proceedings

Erie Town Council Special Meeting – July 29, 2025

The Erie Town Council held a special meeting on July 29, 2025, at 6:00 PM in Council Chambers. The meeting focused on three major agenda items: a macroeconomic overview by University of Colorado economist Richard Wobbekind, a compensation market study presentation, and the 2026 budget forecast and assumptions. Council members engaged in detailed discussions on economic trends, employee pay, and long-term financial planning.

Consent Calendar

  • Approval of the agenda (motion carried unanimously).

Public Comments & Testimony

  • No public comments were made.

Discussion Items

  • Economic Presentation – Richard Wobbekind (University of Colorado Leeds School of Business):
    Wobbekind provided a national and state-level economic outlook. Key points included: U.S. GDP growth forecast of 1.0–1.2% for 2025 (down from 2.5% in 2024), with a pessimistic scenario involving recession considered low probability. National unemployment at 4%, job openings-to-unemployed ratio at 1.1:1. Colorado's GDP growth at 2%, ranking near the middle nationally. Employment growth slowed to 0.7% year-over-year, with the state ranking 33rd. Inflation in the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood area at 2.2% (below national 2.7%). Housing price appreciation slowed, and building permits decreased. Erie's taxable sales growth ranked second among large Colorado cities. Discussion included questions on housing demand, debt burdens, tourism impacts, and AI's effect on employment.

  • Compensation Market Study – Laurie Graves (Graves Consulting):
    Graves presented the annual compensation study results. The recommended structure: 2% market increase to the general government pay structure, 3% merit pay budget (performance-based, with 95% of employees receiving the full 3% in prior years), and a 6% market increase for the police step plan. Several positions (e.g., civil engineers) were recommended for grade upgrades. The study emphasized annual adjustments to avoid pay compression and maintain retention. Council discussed the hybrid performance system, attrition rate (5% town-wide), and the compounding effect of market and merit increases.

  • 2026 Budget Forecast and Assumptions – Sara Hancock (Finance Director) and Cassie Bethune:
    The presentation reviewed historical revenue and expenditure trends relative to population and inflation. Key revenue assumptions: sales tax growth of 5% (with a conservative 3% scenario), property tax decline due to state legislation, and building permit revenue flat. The capital improvement fund (CIF) faces significant demands, with only 44% of budget allocated to maintenance. Staff identified priority areas: core operations, capital maintenance, public safety, parks and recreation, and new capital projects (lowest priority). Council discussed potential debt scenarios for extending the ECC bond and bundling projects (e.g., public safety building, town center mitigation, parks). Timing challenges with the community survey were noted.

Key Outcomes

  • Council provided broad direction for the 2026 budget, prioritizing core operations, capital maintenance, public safety, and parks, with new capital projects as a lower priority.
  • Revenue assumptions (somewhat constrained scenario, averaging ~5% growth) were generally accepted, with staff committed to monitoring and adjusting.
  • Council expressed interest in exploring a debt extension for the ECC bond and potential ballot initiatives for parks and infrastructure, to be discussed in January 2026.
  • Staff will proceed with the recommended compensation structure (2% market, 3% merit, 6% police step) pending final budget approval.
  • Further research on bundling projects (public safety building, town center, parks) was directed.

Meeting Transcript

I'm gonna call to order the uh town of Erie Town Council meeting on July twenty-ninth, twenty twenty-five. Will you put please rise and join me in the budget of allegiance? I Pledge of Agents for the Stands, one nation with liberty and justice or all. Okay, will our town court please take roll? Here present council member Mortalero. Here. Council member Hoback. Here. We have quorum. All right. Sounds good. Do we have a motion to approve the agenda tonight? So second. Who is the second? All in favor say aye. Aye. Aye. All opposed say no. Motion carries. All right. And do we have anybody signed up for public comment tonight? We do not. Okay, then we're gonna move right into general business, of which we have three topics tonight. Uh we have a presentation from Rich Robicine, uh, University of Colorado Lead School of Business. Um then we're gonna move on to a compensation market uh study, and then last um we'll spend our time on our budget forecast and assumptions. Uh so with that, what I'd like to do is turn it over to Rich. Um, Rich is from the Leeds School of Business. Um, I've known Rich uh for some times, who's uh one of my instructors actually when I was at Leeds uh getting my MBA, and he's here to give us a um what I'll say is a macro view of um the economy. Um he does this for a number of municipalities in the state of Colorado as well. So that Rich, I'll turn it over to you. Thank you so much for inviting me, and and we're talking about you know, the concept of putting all of this in context. Uh you know, the more uncertainty there is, the more people want to hear you tell them how calm everything is and how good everything is. So this is part of the issue that we have going on right now. I was kind of joking uh earlier. This is like the fifty-sixth presentation since January first that we've done out of our office. Uh there's just a lot of people uh concerned about what I mean. So do I need to do the next uh you can do next. I think you can roll the mouse though, roll this. Okay, okay, thank you. So we're getting a lot of mixed signals from the national economy. Well, first. I realize you have a long night, Tuesday nights or long nights, and you have three budget. So I'm gonna hit some of this stuff fairly quickly. And the goal here ultimately is leaving time for you to ask questions if you have questions. And pretty much everybody we talk to has questions. So you would not you'd be alone if you didn't have any questions about you know what how we're thinking about things or you know, and what that might be. Uh the the presentation in general focuses up front on the national economy, output, employment, and so on, setting in context, then focus it, does some state comparisons there, then focuses in on state, and then there's some uh Boulder Weld County combination data uh sort of at the end that's cultivated, you know, specifically for this presentation. So, bottom line, uh a lot of mixed signals. The arrows that are in yellow or in sort of in the middle, the arrows that are in red are bad news, and you can see a couple of green hour uh arrows that are up. We still feel pretty positive about employment, we still have good consumption in the overall economy.

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