New Orleans Revenue Estimating Conference Adopts Amended 2026 and Preliminary 2027 Forecasts on September 10, 2026
New Orleans Revenue Estimating Conference Adopts Amended 2026 and Preliminary 2027 Forecasts on September 10, 2026
The Revenue Estimating Conference met on Thursday, September 10, 2026. The written agenda scheduled the meeting for 9:30 a.m. in Council Chambers, but the raw transcript opens with the presiding official saying the meeting was starting just a little after 10:30 a.m. The conference adopted the amended official 2026 General Fund revenue forecast of $884 million and a preliminary 2027 General Fund revenue forecast of $768,249,094.
Roll Call and Minutes
- A quorum was established. Present: Mayor Helena Moreno; Council Member District B Lesli Harris; Council Member At-Large (non-voting representative) Jean-Paul “JP” Morrell; Chief Administrative Officer Joseph I. Giarrusso III; Director of Finance Alyssa W. Rambeau; and Mara Baumgarten Force, Director of the Schwartz Family Center for Experiential Business Learning at Tulane University.
- The conference adopted the April 22, 2026, REC minutes by a 5-0 vote (motion by Lesli Harris, seconded by Mara Baumgarten Force).
Discussion Items: 2026 General Fund Revenue Forecast
- CAO Joseph I. Giarrusso III presented the revised 2026 forecast. He reported that the city had repaid the $125 million revenue anticipation note (RAN) while managing close to $975 million in obligations. Grant reimbursements recognized in prior years were not counted again as revenue, but the cash supported the RAN repayment.
- Subtractions to the prior $828 million forecast included: removal of $2.9 million in GoMESA revenue recognized in April, because it should be reserved for capital funding; a reduction in parking enforcement revenue after the function moved to NOPD and while a new RFP is prepared; a $1.2 million reduction in state transit appropriation that was intended for RTA; a reduction in bond interest due to the spend-down of bond proceeds; and subtraction of $7.12 million in Caesars lease revenue for the half-year after the renegotiated lease closed in May.
- Additions included: $8.6 million in state appropriation for short-term rental fees (double the prior year’s $4.3 million); $16 million interagency transfer from the Assessor’s office, already received; $20 million in Sewerage & Water Board reimbursements (about $10 million received, with another $3.4 million being processed); reclassification of eligible ARPA projects to bonds, freeing roughly $36.5 million; and a conservative $2 million sanitation fee increase, though full October-December collections were estimated at just over $3.3 million.
- The net change was +$56.18 million, making the revised 2026 forecast $884 million. The CAO noted the budget began at $725 million and that the city had generated almost $160-170 million in additional dollars through difficult and strategic decisions.
Discussion Items: 2027 Preliminary Revenue Forecast
- Dr. Tony Weiss, a Tulane economics faculty member speaking as an independent contractor, presented his methodology: historical patterns and seasonality, year-to-date collections, stakeholder discussions, and national economic trends.
- He cited the August national unemployment rate at 4.1%, local unemployment slightly above the national average and holding steady, construction sensitive to interest rates, an upcoming CPI release and Federal Open Market Committee meeting, personal consumption expenditures up 3.4%, and declining consumer sentiment since 2024-2025 as context.
- He projected property taxes flat assuming no millage change or reassessment; general use sales taxes flat with about plus or minus 1.5% leeway; softening in tourism-related taxes; strong sports wagering revenue; and increases in licenses and permits partly from the Omni project, the two-lane Charity project, and the $8.6 million short-term rental appropriation. Service charges were projected up because of the new sanitation fee and expanded EMS collections; intergovernmental revenue was down almost entirely because of the loss of Harrah’s rent; fines and forfeits continued to decrease because red light and speed camera enforcement revenue is declining; and miscellaneous revenue was down slightly because of reduced bond interest.
- He estimated recurring revenues of approximately $756.7 million, a 3% increase over projected 2026 ending revenues.
- CAO Giarrusso noted that rating agencies had criticized the 2026 budget for relying nearly 20% on one-time revenue, while the 2027 forecast relies on only 1.5% one-time revenue, a shift toward structural balance.
- Potential additional revenues discussed included a millage roll forward (about $10.16 million to direct General Fund revenues, $4.36 million from the police and fire millage, and about $28 million in other revenue, excluding outside agencies); a permit fee increase already introduced but requiring a 21-day lie-over with an estimated $1.8 million to the General Fund; and a short-term nightlife fee still being developed that could add $3-5 million.
Key Outcomes
- The conference adopted the amended official 2026 General Fund revenue forecast by a 5-0 vote (motion by Helena Moreno, seconded by Alyssa Rambeau).
- It voted 5-0 to suspend the rules to add the 2027 Preliminary Revenue Forecast to the agenda (motion by Joseph Giarrusso, seconded by Helena Moreno), then voted 5-0 to add the item to the agenda.
- It adopted the preliminary 2027 revenue forecast of $768,249,094 by a 5-0 vote (motion by Helena Moreno, seconded by Lesli Harris). This is roughly $40 million higher than the prior year’s projected revenue.
- It adjourned by a 5-0 vote (motion by Joseph Giarrusso, seconded by Lesli Harris).
- A next Revenue Estimating Conference meeting was announced for the morning of November 19, 2026, before the council meeting, to add any additional revenue.
Meeting Transcript
All right, everyone, let's go ahead and get started. It is just a little bit after ten thirty. I will start with a roll call. Obviously, myself, the mayor is president, is present. Uh, Honorable Leslie Harris, Councilmember for District B is present, uh, Councilmember Morrell is present, uh, CAO Jeruso is present, uh, Director of Finance, Alyssa Rambo is present, and Mark Baumgardner for us uh with Tulane University is present as well. So we have a quorum. All right, with that, we will go through the adoption of the minutes. If I can get a motion, please move by Councilmember Harris. Second. See no opposition, the minutes are adopted. All right, with that, I will turn it over to CAO Jerusalem for today's presentation. Thank you, Madam Mayor. A couple of things of note before we get directly into the presentation. So we'll have an REC meeting on the morning of November nineteenth before the council meeting to add that additional revenue, whatever it may be. Um again uh Finance Director Rambo for all of her work in making sure that the city's bills got paid, but in particular, for making sure that the revenue anticipation note, also known as the RAN was paid. We repaid the $125 million RAN back. So it was close to having $975 million of things to deal with. Now how we were able to do that is explained on this next slide, and I want to thank Abby for putting this together. So that is how we made that work. In addition, reimbursements from grants recognizes revenue in prior years are not reflected again as revenue, but those cash infusions supported the RAND repayment. So in other words, as we got repaid for grants, we didn't recognize that as revenue, but we used that cash to offset what the RAN was. So with that, we move into the revenue forecast. Here is the previously forecasted revenue. I'm not going to go through it line by line because it's been discussed many times. Other than to note two things that are going to change as a result of this. One, the Go Mesa will be deducted, and as a result of moving of the parking enforcement and less robust collection, that number will be deducted. So for Go Mesa, the 2.9 recognized $2.9 million, recognized in April will be removed. That really should be used for capital funding. It's really what supports our ability to bond out against the funding. So it was inappropriate to uh maybe inaccurate is a better word to include into the revenue mix, so we're taking that out of our calculation. In addition, as parking has moved over to NOPD, and as we're also in the process of getting ready to do a new RFP, parking revenue is far less than what we anticipated, and so we have the obligation to make sure that that is reduced as well based on what the math is showing us. So that gets reduced too. Also here, the state transit appropriation is reduced by 1.2 million, also improperly included in the 2026 REC. This was meant for RTA as opposed to us. Yeah, sure. So for the bond interest, we had originally planned or projected bond interest at a rate that was equal to what we had earned last year for 2025. Um not realizing or not considering the actual spend down of those bond proceeds. So we did have to reduce for that amount, and we do expect that there will be an uptick again for 2027, as we know that we did get a new bond uh sale this year, and so we have replenished those uh that bank account. Thank you. Next, um you know this this one is important for us just to keep in mind as a result of the renegotiation of the Caesars lease for the city receiving a little over a hundred million dollars in order to make sure its fund balance is more robust, and as it will continue to grow as a result of being in an investment account, we can no longer recognize the CSER's lease revenue for this year, and as a result of the fact that this is for half of the year because the transaction didn't close until May, we're subtracting $7.12 million from the revenue forecast. So that's all all the news of subtractions. Now let's get to the additions. Um this one is actually something born from the mayor's time in the legislature, and I know also the mayor and council member McCarron and others worked on this, is a state appropriation of $8.6 million for short-term rental fees. So we are we are we're expected to get half this year and we will get more in the in the future, and so we are gonna recognize that $8.6 million dollars and increase. Uh it was $4.3 million the past year, so it is double now for this year. The second one is um an interagency transfer from the assessor's office. Want to thank Assessor Williams as a former CAO, he understood the importance of the city's financial situation, and because of his healthy fund balance, he transferred $16 million to the city funds, and those have already been received. In addition, we're recognizing the $20 million from Sujan Waterboard reimbursements. Um the city is working with Soujan Water Board on this. As a slide notes, roughly $10 million has been received already of the $20 million.
openpublica.com