OPENPUBLICA · PUBLIC MEETING RECORD
Record of Proceedings

Cook County FY26 & FY27 Preliminary Budget Forecast, July 21, 2026

Board of CommissionersTuesday, July 21, 2026
BodyCook County, Illinois
SessionBoard of Commissioners
DateTuesday, July 21, 2026
StatusNEW · FILED
Video Record

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Transcript — Verbatim
0:01

Okay, thank you.

0:02

Good morning.

0:03

Can everyone hear me?

0:05

Good morning, Board of Commissioners.

0:08

Thank you.

0:09

It is a pleasure to be here as the CFO to provide an overview of our preliminary forecast, which is the mid-year projection of the year-in revenues and expenses for fiscal year 26 and an initial forecast of the projected FY27 revenues and expenditures for our two major operating funds, the General Fund and the Health Enterprise Fund.

0:34

We present this preliminary forecast while navigating several uncertainties.

0:39

These projections are based on what we know today.

0:42

FY26 has already been filled with several challenges with additional difficulties expected in fiscal year 27.

0:51

However, it is important to recognize that the years of discipline and financial responsibility have put the county in a strong position to address these challenges and are positioned to continue the important work and priorities of President Pret Winkel and the Board of Commissioners.

1:09

While outside factors can cause unexpected changes to the revenue and expenditure projections we are putting forward today.

1:17

This preliminary forecast is designed to provide a transparent look at the current and anticipated Cook County budgets.

1:24

We will continue to monitor the ever changing fiscal environment and provide relevant updates in the forthcoming budget recommendation.

1:32

I want to thank the entire Bureau of Finance for the work they do every day.

1:37

I have only been here about a month, and I can already see what a great team we have in place.

1:43

Our strong finance team starts with this impressive team.

1:47

Also want to thank the entire Board of Commissioners for your input and guidance.

1:52

I look forward to working with each and every one of you as we continue to put forward important initiatives while being mindful of our long-term finances.

2:01

And with that, I believe we are ready to start our presentation with CANACO.

2:07

Good.

2:10

Good morning, Commissioners.

2:13

Today's presentation begins with a review of a key economic indicators that influence financial outlook, not only for the county, but also nation as a whole.

2:23

We will then provide an overview of the preliminary year-end forecast for fiscal year 2026 and the initial projection for 2027 for the county's two largest operating funds, General Fund and the Health Enterprise Fund.

2:35

Finally will conclude with updates on our ongoing commitments.

2:41

With that, I pass to our deputy CFO, Dean Constantina.

2:45

Thank you very much, CANACO.

2:48

So, as you are all aware, the county's revenues are really closely tied to economic conditions.

2:54

So whenever we open the preliminary budget, we want to make sure we understand what is happening in the economy today and kind of what we expect in the future.

3:04

So since COVID, we have seen a real precipitous drop in the rate of inflation to a level that approached normal at the end of last year.

3:12

However, largely due to the war in Iran, we have seen some increases in the rate of inflation as higher energy prices begin to impact other commodities.

3:21

We can reasonably expect that these increases in inflation will also impact the cost of goods for the county and the members of our community.

3:29

Real gross domestic product, which is closely tied to our sales tax revenue growth, is expected to remain about the 2 percent 2 percent level across our forecasting period as kind of assumed by most of the major forecasters.

3:45

However, more recent forecasts, like those developed by Moody's and the survey of professional forecasters, are coalescing around the idea the higher energy prices at the start of this year will translate into slower growth in 2027.

3:59

In total, economic indicators are being depressed by the war in Iran and the corresponding impact on commodity prices.

4:07

These are factors that are outside of our control but have a direct impact on our revenues.

4:12

So it is very important that we keep an eye on these as we plan for the future.

4:16

What is also largely outside next slide, please.

4:19

What is also largely outside of our control is the impact of Federal legislation.

4:25

The one big beautiful bill or HR1 is expected to have a significant change on our FY 2027 revenues.

4:32

The legislation takes direct aim at Medicaid recipients, particularly the ACA adult population, which is projected to decline by about 16.2 percent at county care.

4:50

And translates to a $944 million difference if we were to compare it to what we would have expected prior to the passage of HR 1.

5:00

HR1 is also expected to decrease the patient service revenues and directed payments that Cook County Hospital system is expected to receive.

5:09

As people lose access to Medicaid, those that cannot afford insurance are forced to pay out of pocket.

5:15

These self-pay patients are much less likely to pay their bills.

5:20

And this translates into a $45.4 million reduction in patient fees and directed payments for CCH, but for the passage of HR1.

5:32

I'll now turn it over.

5:33

So these and some other external factors are really what's uh resulting in a projected preliminary gap that is really nominally the largest we've seen in nearly 16 years.

5:44

And I'll I'll turn it over to our budget director to provide us with more details about that.

5:49

Thank you, Dean.

5:53

The bar graph here illustrates county's historical budget gap.

5:57

As you can see in this graph, since President took office in 2011, the county had steadily reduced the gap until COVID pandemic hit us.

6:06

Although the budget gap increased in recent years due to unanticipated retroactive cost of living adjustments, the county's total appropriation has increased as well.

6:15

It's therefore it's really important to highlight the scale of each gap relative to annual budget.

6:22

As you can see in this line graph, in 2011, the net budget gap of 487 million dollars represented 20.9% of that year's annual appropriation.

6:34

By contrast, the $211.4 million dollar gap for 2026 accounted for less than 3% of this year's appropriation.

6:42

We believe this reflects our fiscal discipline.

6:45

We have consistently balanced the budget with a forward-looking approach and without drawing on county reserve for permanent infrastructure without a long-term solution.

6:56

In 2027, however, the projected gap rises to more than $550 million across the Health Enterprise Fund and the General Fund, driven largely by external factors beyond the county's control.

7:09

I'll walk through some of those details in the next few slides.

7:13

Next slide.

8:34

This created an immediate risk of general fund ending 2026 in a deficit, which we addressed in April with a series of small uh holdbacks and projected surplus within general fund.

8:46

However, underlying restrictions on how those revenue could be spent remain.

8:52

And therefore, the county will now face an annual structure deficit of almost 258 million dollars in 2027 and beyond.

9:01

A second major pressure is the continued growth in payroll and pension liabilities.

9:06

Payroll costs rise each year due to cost of a living adjustments and natural salary progressions.

9:11

And as the salary increases, so do pension obligations.

9:14

The actual liability of the pension fund growth, which in turn increases the level of contribution required to keep the fund in a healthy trajectory.

9:23

Finally, employee benefits costs are rising sharply.

9:26

Health care costs continue to decline due to medical inflation and increased utilization.

9:32

Prescription drug spending is increasing, and at the same time, more employees are selecting more costly but flexible PPO plan, which further drives up the overall benefit expenditures.

9:44

These are not only pressures on the budget, but they represent some of the most prominent cost drivers that we are trying to address this year.

9:51

Next slide.

10:02

This may come as a surprise given that we just talked about significant pressure to the fund.

10:08

On the revenue side, we are projecting a year and positive variance of 266.3 million dollars, driven largely by two one-time factors, 150 million dollar cigarette tax receipts from tobacco settlement agreement due to the great work of departmental revenue, and a stronger than expected sales tax performance, which is 122.7 million higher than appropriated.

10:32

On the expense side, we are projecting expenses to coming 16.8 million below budget.

10:37

The corrective action we took in spring to address the over budget risk created by Safer's amendment, combined with a natural uh under spending, achieved the favorable year-end position.

10:48

Next slide.

10:52

On the contrary, we are expecting a large budget gap of $336 million in fiscal year 2027.

10:59

While anticipating a large gap, the county's base revenue, which excludes one-time revenue sources of fund balance, increases by $130.5 million compared to 2026 appropriation, largely driven by the larger sales tax receipts anticipated.

11:15

However, expense increase outpaces the revenue growth.

11:18

As previously mentioned, the loss of allowable expenses under transportation fund increases the overall general fund expenses.

11:26

Payroll expenses are projected to grow by 108.9 million dollars without any without any new positions.

11:34

And as salaries of future annual transclim, the pension fund contribution grows.

11:39

And fringe benefits are expected to go up by 35.4 million dollars.

11:46

With a structured deficit of this magnitude, it is really essential that we consider a comprehensive comprehensive restructuring of our finances.

11:56

To address this gap, we are going to focus both on expenses and revenue.

12:01

On the expense side, we will implement targeted belt tightening across the county.

12:06

We will prioritize programs and functions that are evaluated through lens of policy priorities, mandates, operational capacities, and deferred risk, and to think about a multi-year planning.

12:18

We also carefully assess vacancies to help us reduce cost without undermining uh workforce or maintain and maintaining uh essential and quality programs that all county residents uh expect.

12:30

On the revenue side, we are exploring opportunity to leverage existing assets to diversify and enhance our revenue base.

12:43

Now moving on to health enterprise fund.

12:46

Uh, there are several key factors influencing the health enterprise fund forecasts as well.

12:51

CCH continue to face challenges stemming from recent changes in federal Medicaid eligibility rules.

12:58

Beginning in October 2026, certain immigrants, including individuals with a protected temporary protective status, asylum seekers will lose Medicaid eligibility.

13:09

In addition, new work verification requirements and more frequent redetermination processes are expected to further reduce Medicaid enrollments, impacting revenues both in county care as well as Cook County Health Providers.

13:23

As the county's primary safe net health care provider, we anticipate an increase in uninsured population and corresponding rise in uncompensated or charity care.

13:34

Finally, cost of a living adjustment, natural salary progression are adding upward pressure to Cook County health expenses, similar to trends in general fund.

13:45

Next slide.

14:05

Total revenues are expected to exceed adapted budget by 315.9 million by the end of fiscal year 2026.

14:13

This favorable variance is driven largely by one-time appropriation adjustment of $330 million.

14:20

We did mid over the fiscal year to support timely county care claim payments.

14:25

Excluding this adjustment, base revenue show mixed performance.

14:29

County care PMPM or capitalism is projected to come in $103.9 million above the budget, while patient fee revenues such as Medicaid, Medicare, private insurance fees are expected to fall short by $92.9 million.

14:44

On expenses, total costs are expected to exceed the budget by $358.8 million dollars.

14:51

The primary driver is the county care claim expenses, which are offset by corresponding PMPM revenue.

15:00

Additional cost pressures include higher utilization related ACA and immigration populations, increased pharmaceutical spending, and elevated events levels continue to put the pressure on overtime and register expenditures.

15:12

Next slide.

15:15

In 2027, the Health Enterprise Fund is projected to face a budget gap of 214.7 million dollars.

15:23

The primary driver is the impact of HR1 or one big beautiful bill act on Medicaid eligibility as mentioned.

15:32

Due to the more restrictive criteria, new work verification requirements, and frequent redermination processes.

15:39

County care membership is expected to decline from 379,000 at the fiscal year 26 ending to 334,000 in 2027.

15:50

This reduction lowers county care PMP revenue by roughly 250 million compared to 2026 appropriation.

15:57

In addition, net patient service revenue, again, those are Medicaid, Medicare private insurance fees, which support health care operations are projected to drop by 164.8 million dollars because of a coverage shifts and decline in a direction payments as Medicaid population decline.

16:14

As a result, the self-pay and uninsured population is expected to climb by approximately 100 million dollars in 2027.

16:22

On expense side, as mentioned, payroll and employee benefits are expected to rise, similar to in the general fund, and alongside uh with the continued uh growth in pharmaceutical expenditures.

16:35

Next slide.

16:38

So this bar graph uh just shows the our highlights the core driver uh behind the financial outlook.

16:45

As you can see, at the beginning of it already uh 2027, we are seeing a um drop aligned with a policy change under HR1, particularly affecting ACA adult populations, and additional programmatic changes amplify this trend, including removal of uh managed long-term service supports, MLTSS in 2027 and assuming the phase out of health benefits immigrant seniors for 2028.

17:11

As a membership declines and mentioned, we lose stable capitation uh revenue while simultaneously seeing an increase in uncompensated care.

17:20

With that, I'll pass back to uh Dean Constantina.

17:24

Thank you, Kanako.

17:26

Um despite these challenges outlined by CANACO here, the county does remain committed to serving our community in a way that is fiscally responsible.

17:35

To that end, we are committed to paying down our pension obligations and still advancing our ARPA sustainability plan.

17:43

In 2023, the state approved Public Act 103-0529, a county initiative to ensure the county's pension funds will be able to provide promised benefits to our new attendants by making actuarily determined contributions.

17:59

We can we are committed to continuing to make those payments, and we will continue to make those payments, but in starting in 2047, after those legacy liabilities are fully paid down, the county's annual contributions to the pension fund will drop precipitously.

18:14

Currently, we're at about a 68.9% funded ratio, uh, and we expect to improve as the years go on.

18:23

Back in 2024, next slide, please.

18:26

The county established the ARPA sustainability reserve.

18:30

The idea of the reserve was to carve a stair step into the fiscal cliff created by the end of the American Rescue Plan Program.

18:37

We knew that there would be no way that the county could continue to provide funding for every single program that we developed under ARPA.

18:44

So the reserve was created for the stated purpose of reducing the amount allocated from it each year between 2027 and 2030.

18:53

In order to establish which programs would be sustained, we engaged in a host of surveys and hyper-local conversations.

19:00

We invited commissioners across the county to join as we heard from voices in our community.

19:05

Based on that conversation, we narrowed down the list of programs that we wanted to sustain and worked with departments in the OUP to establish funding needs that aligned with available resources.

19:17

Through this process, we established that we will be moving forward with 12 programs, which are identified to the right on this slide, and we'll seek to try and sustain them as identified here.

19:28

This will be the first year that we use the ARPA sustainability reserve, and we intend to allocate $52.6 million from it so that we can continue to provide these important services in FY 2027.

19:41

However, in 2028, we will need to start addressing the expected gaps between estimated costs and ARPA reserves.

19:48

At this point, we have a total projected gap of about 42.3 million dollars between 2028 and 2030.

20:00

We will be working closely with departments to develop gap reduction strategies, and those include seeking to identify external funds from philanthropy and other external sources where we can, generating revenues from the programs themselves when possible, and leveraging county funds or scaling down initiatives when necessary, all with a goal of sustaining these programs in perpetuity, which we believe we can do despite these challenges.

20:22

With that, I'll pass it back to Canako.

20:25

Okay, yeah.

20:29

That concludes our presentation, and I will pass back to you, CFO, Angela.

20:36

Okay.

20:37

I guess we open it up for the questions.

20:40

We'll open it up for questions and before we start.

20:44

Please add Commissioner Stamps and Commissioner Scott to the roll call.

20:48

Commissioner, what we'll do is, as we did before, a 10-minute allocation, and then we will come back.

20:56

So all members are allocated.

20:57

Commissioner Lowry, Commissioner Anaya.

21:00

And we'll do it by seniority.

21:01

Thank you, Chairman.

21:02

And thank you, um CFO Manning and Team for your overview.

21:08

We appreciate it.

21:09

One thing I want to drill down on a little bit is the piece that you referenced and discussed about the restructuring of our finances.

21:18

And I think obviously, as we go through this process, uh two things are very important messaging, but also transparency.

21:28

And when we look at the restructuring of revenue portfolios, and we're focusing on diversity and increasing the revenue base, how will this board be kept abreast of all strategies relative to diversity and the increasing of revenue basis?

21:48

Great question, thank you.

21:51

One of the things we will step up on is obviously our meetings with the commissioners.

21:57

We want to be able to have individual meetings with you and brief you on the progress we are making on the revenue fronts.

22:03

I know uh one of the things that uh I committed to is looking at new revenue opportunities uh in this role, and I do have some thoughts about that, but I think just the communication through the one-on-one meetings uh with the commissioners will be the avenue we pursue and making sure you guys understand where we are in terms of restructuring the revenue portfolios.

22:24

And relative to this restructuring uh initiative, are we focusing on from today through the November uh finalization of the budget?

22:33

Is this an do you see this as an ongoing thing into FY27?

22:37

Um, what's the pan?

22:38

What's the plan?

22:40

I definitely see this going uh into FY27.

22:43

Some of the revenue uh thoughts that I uh have discussed with the team will require a little bit more time to dig through and analyze in order to understand.

22:52

So you won't see them as part of the 27 budget, but in 28.

22:57

Uh, but we have looked, we're looking at the revenue models uh we currently have and what we can legally do with the models that we have.

23:06

And then the last question I had relative to this uh component of the presentation, if operative word if, the provision of services are impacted in some way as a result of the restructuring.

23:19

There's got to be a strategy relative to community outreach, transparency, et cetera.

23:24

Is that being contemplated at this time or not?

23:27

Um not at this time, but we will definitely put that on the radar that we need to have those conversations if there's any impact that needs to be discussed with the commissioners and obviously the county leadership.

23:38

Thank you.

23:38

Nothing further, Chairman.

23:39

Thank you.

23:40

And Angela, I know there was a and I this may be a question for this for the SPO.

23:45

In reference to, I know the state passed a bill, a couple of posts that affected us financially in the hospital.

23:52

I don't know if you are aware of it.

23:54

I could bring it up with that hospital.

23:56

Probably probably the hospital, thank you.

23:59

I wouldn't want to miss speak for them.

24:01

Okay.

24:02

And then Commissioner Dagnan, followed by Commissioner Nyam.

24:05

I'm sorry.

24:06

Thank you, Chair.

24:09

Thank you for being here today and for all the financial analysis.

24:12

And you know, we get a lot of briefings from you throughout the year, so I really appreciate each one of you working your own silos and you come together to give us a fully colorful view of what's going on financially at the county.

24:26

So there's a lot online about the financial impact of inflation and how that's been affecting folks kind of in their pocketbook.

24:34

Somebody recently took a receipt from 2021 uh stuff they bought at Target, how much it was then, and then they put everything in their basket again today, and the amount of money that they would have paid was so much higher that I think it gave everybody online a really good, clear, kind of basic understanding and such a clear family type of what goes into my basket and what do I bring home and how much money am I paying now versus 2021?

25:02

Um so the it got me thinking about the county and the impact of inflation.

25:08

We get a lot of our money that we spend on county services from sales tax.

25:12

So if people are spending more money, we get more money, but we're also spending money on goods and services.

25:18

So I'm curious about the balance of what we're spending versus what we're bringing in.

25:23

So how does that affect how does that inflation number, how does that affect our bottom line?

25:28

Is the county receiving more in revenue in some areas due to rising costs, but then suffering in other as a result of the same rising costs?

25:35

And do we track that?

25:36

Do we track the IMRAN war?

25:38

Do we track it through?

25:39

I guess maybe this is more of a dean question.

25:41

Um tariff policies.

25:43

How does that work?

25:45

Yeah, I can speak to that a little bit.

25:47

Um to answer the first part of your question, I think it's important to understand that historically the county's revenues have not really kept up with the rate of inflation or with the rate of the increases in the cost that we've received or that we pay.

26:05

Um that's something that we've documented throughout the independent revenue forecasting commission for a while.

26:11

And so some of the measures that we may be talking about in terms of restructuring the revenues and the expenses of the county in the coming months, they're they're they're kind of accelerated from from where we probably would have had to go to at some point, you know, a little bit further in the future, but for the impact of the road builder's case.

26:32

So I think that's important to understand that just generally speaking, our revenues have not really kept up with expenses, and that's because a number of our revenues just decline, and some of our revenues are stagnant.

26:44

Um think cigarette tax, for example, is something that's generally been declining over time.

26:49

Um the other part of your question is related to what are the economic impacts of the ways that we look at um kind of economic indicators and how we incorporate them into our revenue forecasts, right?

27:02

Um and I think the way that we do that uh is pretty sophisticated for a local government.

27:08

So one of the things that we do, uh, we use information from Moody's Analytics, which provides economic uh indicators uh that uh we use and we incorporate them and we do a correlation analysis against what you know sales tax might be doing against those economic indicators, and then based on that correlation analysis, we monitor what those forecasts are for um uh for for those economic indicators and then build our our our sales tax and other revenue forecasts based off of that information.

27:41

Additionally, what happens is we get forecasts from Moody's analytics under different economic scenarios that may include you know what happens if the war in Iran escalates, what if the Federal Reserve reduces the impact on uh and so we leverage those scenario analyses as well to inform our estimates and and that information is actually built into how we think about what our reserve should be.

28:05

So generally speaking, that's how we think about um any type of geopolitical economic uh indicators or impacts that we might see.

28:15

We build them into our revenue models, and then uh we uh understand what the risk is and we build that risk into our uh kind of unassigned ending fund balance estimates.

28:25

Okay.

28:26

Well, I think when I look between 21 and 26, and inflation had gone up about 25% over that time.

28:32

That's a huge jarring number for the county buying, you know, whether it is building and construction materials or whatever it is that we need in order to perform our operations, is just you know, uh it seems almost unsustainable if it's five years and 25% with the amount of money that we're bringing in to even perform the same goods and services, even because people need raises and we need to make sure that we're giving small two to three percent, whatever it is, step increases or raises to people through collective bargaining agreements to make sure that people have enough money to take home to pay their rent and to put food in their mouths.

29:08

So, you know, good job.

29:10

I just uh you know, it does seem to be a significant um issue that meet you and I think maybe can keep our eyes on and talk about a little bit more in the next few months before we get to budget.

29:21

Thank you.

29:23

Commissioner I'm sorry, Commissioner Gaynor.

29:27

And please add Commissioner Gainer to the roll call.

29:29

Commissioner Thank you, Chair.

29:34

Um, so just a few questions.

29:35

Um just wondering if you all know how much of the unassigned uh fund balance um is gonna be estimated or available for FY 2027.

29:46

And that of course, you know, with the projections of the end of year general fund and all of the other funds that we may have.

30:00

So as a result of the unfavorable fund balance that we saw in 2020 5 in 2027, the amount of unassigned ending fund balance above the ceiling, well, there won't be any unassigned ending fund balance above the ceiling.

30:10

So we won't under uh these circumstances be able to leverage those resources for for anything.

30:18

So is this so I'm assuming based on that is the reason why we're seeing such a huge shortfall potentially coming in the next um in the next um cycle FY 2027?

30:32

Because we won't be able to see that come back to the general fund?

30:37

That's part of the reason.

30:38

I think generally uh it's more that the driver of why we see a reduction in the unassigned ending fund balance is what's causing the structural deficit in 2027.

30:48

Okay.

30:49

I appreciate that, Dean.

30:51

Um so uh also wondering, you know, given the strong performance of the general fund revenue, because we've we've talked about that, we've seen it.

30:59

Um do we know if we're intending to um see revisions or updates uh to the end of year of FY 2026?

31:08

And is there any way that where we can get updates, maybe like in September as we go into the new budget cycle, if we see any changes in the revenue and any performance metrics that exceed what we are currently projecting?

31:22

So, Commissioner, we include an estimate of our year-to-day budget versus actual in the monthly revenue and expense reports, um, and that estimate of the year-to-date budget is is seasonalized, so it is a pretty good indication of where you might be at the end of the year.

31:38

Sorry.

31:39

Okay.

31:41

Oh, I thought that's the first time.

31:42

No, sorry.

31:44

Okay, okay.

31:45

Um put my mic in front of my mouth there.

31:47

Okay, wonderful.

31:48

Okay, those were the main questions.

31:50

I appreciate um uh number one being briefed on this beforehand.

31:55

We did get a lot of our questions um answered at that time.

31:58

So thanks, Dean, and thanks to to the whole uh budget and finance team.

32:02

Yeah, absolutely.

32:03

And I should add that we'll also have the IRFC reports that come out in October.

32:06

We have the executive recommendation, so there'll be ops there'll be a lot of options for us to represent what the forecasted impact is for 2026 and 2027 and beyond.

32:15

Perfect.

32:16

Thank you.

32:19

Commissioner Gainer.

32:21

Thank you very much.

32:22

Thanks, Dean.

32:23

I was able to listen on my way over.

32:25

So a couple questions.

32:27

Um I know you're gonna address this probably multiple times, but the health fund balance, how independent is that?

32:33

So obviously the health fund balance is coming under pressure, some of which we can foresee, some of which we can't.

32:38

Um I'll I'll ask them, but one of the things I'm looking at is there's two things.

32:43

One is um how proportionate is the reduction in in revenues that we receive from the feds directly related to services that we won't provide, or is it like they're gonna reduce the money, but we're gonna still have demand on the services, so it's kind of just a net loss of revenue and less and a pretty consistent expenses.

33:01

So understanding that, and then secondly, is understanding the independence of the health fund in relation to the rest of the county budget.

33:09

So if the health fund has a structural deficit that's gonna continue maybe on for at least a couple of years, um, and certainly within the time that it takes us to amend any of our the way we run the health system, uh, whether it's staffing or uh other expenditures, how much does that impact the county's credit ratings or the county's ability to function and have its services, or is that somewhat is is that walled off independent from the mainline county budget?

33:44

So I think right when we think about the interrelationship between the county and the hospital system in general, I think there's one thing to kind of like parse out certainly the the county and the hospital interrelated.

34:00

And I think this body has said, you know, repeatedly that you know the county is committed to maintaining a safety net hospital with Strozier Hospital, and so they're inextricably connected.

34:12

Um way that they are specifically connected is through the property tax allocation uh that we provide to uh the hospital system.

34:22

Generally speaking, and over the years, the the way that we have allocated the resources to the property that for from the property tax has been related to the provision of care at Cook County um uh at Surmac Hospital and the JTDC for you know the the patients uh uh there and then also uh through the provision of care for the Cook County Department of Public Health.

34:47

And so that's generally where the property tax allocation has been allocated to.

34:53

In prior years, we've also provided some level of support related to uh the provision of care um for uncompensated individuals.

35:04

Um I'll also add that you know the county also pays for the pension uh of of the hospital.

35:09

Let me make this a simpler question.

35:11

Right.

35:11

Is that are we going to in the in the corporate budget make up any shortfalls and thus we're all in it together?

35:19

I.

35:20

It's gonna be a one-for-one.

35:21

If if if they have a reduction, they have we main consistent levels of provision of care for charity care, but they have a reduced revenue.

35:28

We're gonna figure out some way to make it up.

35:30

If they have, you know, we have to constitutionally provide all the same types of care in the correctional facilities.

35:36

So we're gonna make it up.

35:37

So what I'm trying to figure out is um is it somewhat separate and independent?

35:42

And they're gonna sort it out themselves, and we can help them or not, or is it really like they drop, we come in and and fulfill it?

35:52

Uh I'll jump in here.

35:54

So we've been working with the counties since I've started, and one of the things we've tasked them with is problem solving their budget to deliver a balanced budget.

36:03

Um and so they've been working very aggressively to do that, looking at the revenues and their expenses and where they can streamline.

36:10

And so they do still have a a gap.

36:12

It's significantly lower than where we started.

36:14

And so the goal uh even as of today, we're still pushing them to look at their their uh cost model more closely.

36:22

Um whether we contribute more from the general fund uh is a question still to to determine, but we are pressuring them to problem solve within the confines of the enterprise fund.

36:36

So will we have to give money from the general fund?

36:39

There's a high possibility, but we are pushing them to problem solve the enterprise fund uh deficit within the confines of their revenue and expense model, and I would say to date they've made good progress in doing so.

36:54

We we do take with a grain of salt the initial shortfall numbers because they all always do same to start out like this and then they they do come down during the budget process.

37:03

And I have been getting up to speed on their revenue revenue and their expense model.

37:09

I've spent quite a bit of time with them understanding the methodologies they've employed to develop those numbers and really understanding for myself, uh and I have the team working closely with me and also the independent revenue forecasting commission.

37:22

So I think there's a lot more eyes looking at their revenues, both the uh expense model and the revenue more closely.

37:29

Okay.

37:29

And then Chairman, I'm not sure when the last time we had the IGA presentation, um, but it would be interesting to hear what exactly is going on, what what we're doing in Washington to address some of the stuff on the revenue side.

37:42

I know some of it is beyond our scope with a big beautiful bill and all that stuff, but I'd love to understand that piece of it.

37:47

You know, I don't need the answer right now, but I don't know when that next meeting is.

37:52

Yeah, great.

37:54

Next thing is do you know how much revenue we make from cannabis?

38:00

Um, I am sorry, I don't remember that number off the top of my head, but I can certainly get back to you on it.

38:07

So two things I'd love to understand better.

38:10

You can get back to me on them.

38:11

One is sorry, the budget director wouldn't have that number, but we could not go.

38:16

Thank you, Commissioner.

38:17

Uh, cannabis taxi projected to generate about 12 million dollars.

38:21

Okay.

38:21

So we make 12 million dollars from cannabis.

38:23

What I would love to understand, uh, if we could look at the whole of the county, meaning law enforcement um public and mental health as well as the hospital system is what do we spend dealing with the after effects of cannabis?

38:38

Um addiction, crime, mental illness.

38:42

Um, you know, I I think that we're dealing with a very different drug than maybe people have an institutional memory of.

38:50

Highly addictive, very targeted, um, having, you know, really untested and just as we are discovering deleterious effects, especially on young people.

39:00

But I think that just like we make cigarette revenues, but we also run a health system.

39:06

Um I'd love to understand the ratio of how much we take in from legalizing this drug and how much we pay for the ramifications of its widespread use.

39:20

Um because uh separate from my feelings about legalization, you know, in general, is we should at least those numbers should net each other out and we shouldn't be, you know, I think there's all this big talk about how much money governments make from cannabis, but not much about how much we have to spend dealing with the the impact of widespread drug use.

39:41

So if you could help me understand those things, I'd really love to get to it.

39:46

And I'm happy to put staff time behind it if that's helpful.

39:49

Um, last question.

39:52

The there have been increasingly urgent reports around the the funded status of the city pension.

40:00

Okay last question the there have been increasingly urgent reports around the the funded status of the city pension and I know that our pension is in a much different place for lots of reasons many of which have been actions taken over the course of a decade plus is there any and I don't I think the answer to this is no but any risk political pressure other things that might um go for the combining of funds or something that would you know kind of put everyone in one pot or do something to address the underfunded status of the city pension with anything that has to do with our pension and how confident would you be about that answer I think the that would be needless to say decision there would be very hard to look at because as you are well well aware we're up here and the city is in here and would be buying it would affect our standing and our tremendously one of the things I think we should be hyper aware of right now as we deal with Springfield and everything else is I mean it'll be like a sinking ship and they'll you know there may be things we would have thought never possible that could become possible when the alternatives are worse.

41:19

So I just you know think that should be on your radar whether or not they would recombine uh would require legislation does the state does the state combine all the municipal funds do do we get into IMRF with everyone else and it's a unified system because that's the only way to not cause draconian outcomes for retirees I bet I as I said I'm not sure if we would need some legislation to change that and I would assume there would be a pullback from a number of the w whether or not there would be from the people unions who represent the county pensionaires.

41:55

But I think it's you're right it's something if you want them to look at or explore I just wanted to be on the radar because nothing's everything's impossible something's impossible until it's not impossible.

42:05

And so I I just think it would be really helpful to not think of that as something that's impossible and to be on top of it and like listening for the whispers and any sort of like red flag down the future because I could certainly see that you know being a more attractive solution than either a massive tax increase or a massive cut in benefits for people.

42:26

I think so I could just speak to this briefly but I mean every every legislative session we are looking at any type of pension legislation that is being that is being passed uh or being considered down in Springfield and you know our team is always tasked with kind of estimating what the financial impact of those proposed legislations might be and providing our opinions on whether or not we would support it or or not and so we'll continue to do with that process and and you know in the event that something like that were to occur we'd certainly put in our opposition for it.

42:56

I know I just want you to be thinking about a broader spectrum of possibilities than we might have considered in the past.

43:02

I I do have one more question.

43:04

So you know we've kind of eliminated for more or less the scavenger sale the that tax process the the um you know there may be an annual sale is there have we addressed that I mean in the fact of like the change in late fees that we may um that we may collect and has there ever been any thought to the fact of that those late fees because they are on a countywide you know budget they really are the entire county is contributing to this that those would come into the general fund like are they are they meant you know deemed relegated into an enterprise fund?

43:44

I don't think so because right now they end up in the treasurer's office and then there's decisions made about funding not funding various things but it's seen as almost like treasure office revenue but it's actually county revenue and so being that that whole system is changing are we thinking differently about that.

44:07

So my understanding of the fees um that fees are intended to cover the costs associated with providing the services and so I think we would have to look at an analysis to see if there's a surplus situation and that surplus then we would have to consider whether it goes in a general fund.

44:24

But my 30-day understanding of fees is that we're not supposed to charge uh a sum greater than what it requires us to to perform the services in which the related fees are for I I think that's worth exploring because I think they are far in excess of what it costs to operate the service because mostly they're just interests and late fees.

44:44

They're you know it's not uh performance of a function fee.

44:50

Um okay and then just lastly as a general thing and I'll bring it up again is you know I think the impact on the whole budget in the whole county of the delay in in the Tyler implementation that there are so many impacts.

45:03

I mean, you will hear from the land bank later.

45:06

They're being completely constrained about the ability to get property, which is the only way they make money.

45:11

Um, because we can't get they can't get tax certificates out of the clerk's office.

45:16

I mean, it's like you're down to all these tiny details, and it's having all these knock on effects.

45:21

No one thought that this Tyler issue would create a you know shortfall in the future for the land bank, but it might because we're not able to handle this basic issue, to say nothing in the fact that I'm sure I speak with for all my colleagues, but we get calls every single day of people that are like two years behind on getting their rebates, two years behind on their overpayments, get not getting their exemptions paid.

45:44

Like we have to have an answer to give these people the money that they're owed.

45:49

Um right now it's not a very good one.

45:54

Okay.

45:55

And I'm sure the various electeds hopefully might have been answered as well.

45:59

Maybe.

46:01

No, we don't have any questions.

46:03

Thank you, Commissioner.

46:04

Uh Commissioner Kevin Morrison.

46:06

Anything Commissioner.

46:13

Thank you, Chairman.

46:14

And uh I CFO maybe.

46:16

I'm sorry, yeah, Miss Commissioner.

46:17

I'm sorry, uh miss Commissioner.

46:20

Nayam was next.

46:21

No, we have our yes.

46:24

I had correct didn't commission your mind.

46:30

Go ahead.

46:31

Oh, yes, uh, given the the deficit and the gaps that we're gonna be experiencing in 27 and 28.

46:37

How is it going to affect reserves in terms of do you keep decreasing reserves or we're gonna have to tap into it?

46:42

But what's your overall forecast on the reserves?

46:48

You can answer the first park quest.

46:50

So I think right.

46:52

Assuming we do nothing, then we would anticipate that our reserves would fall below the floor by by the end of 2027, and then um, you know, it would it would start to turn negative, our unassigned ending fund balance would start to turn negative by by 2029.

47:10

So I think it's very important that as we move forward with this 2027 budget that we come up with structural solutions to avoid uh the potential impact uh to our reserves.

47:23

Thank you.

47:24

The only thing I was gonna add is it's go it's one of the philosophies I would uh push forward is that we continue that is a very last resort, uh streamlining our cost and looking at the revenue options, even new ones, is is the preferred approach.

47:45

The reserves is last resort.

47:47

In fact, the objective, even in these challenging times, is to secure that and build it.

47:53

So that is definitely a last resort.

47:56

And uh one of the things I'm committed to doing is implementing uh a more robust long-range uh budget process, which kind of gives us a lens a lot earlier into what those expectations are.

48:12

Thank you.

48:15

Commissioner Mulita.

48:18

Followed by Commissioner Trevor.

48:20

Thank you, Chairman, and welcome, Angela.

48:22

Thank you.

48:24

So I had a question about uh when we believe that we'll have more information regarding the potential size of the FY27 TIFF surplus.

48:34

That's a great question.

48:38

Normally we don't have that information until just before the um release of the executive recommendation.

48:46

Um we generally have to wait until the City of Chicago declares what their TIFF surplus is going to be, and then we leverage that information and our historical collection rate from that information to establish what would be provided to the county.

49:01

Put us at October.

49:07

Um I know uh Commissioner Gaynor asks about some of the potential pending legislation in DC that impacts us.

49:14

Um is just around the General Assembly specifically.

49:18

Um do any of the have any of the policy changes made by the GA potentially uh impact our revenue uh either directly or in terms of additional opportunity of you know, additional new revenues, things like fantasy sports betting, crypto, social media, things like that.

49:40

I'm sorry, I didn't hear the first part of the question.

49:43

Uh any changes in the General Assembly in terms of legislation passed, what the if they have any potential potential impacts, both either directly right now or things that maybe they passed that we can piggyback.

49:54

And the TIF one, because there was a bill, Commissioner, as you know.

50:00

Uh that would forbid any municipality from sweeping TIFFs.

50:04

I'm not sure what happened with that bill.

50:07

Because that would have a trip to your point, and not only on the TIFS, but other legislation that were passed that had an impact on us.

50:15

But the TIF one was specifically one if it passed.

50:19

We would not uh the city of Chicago, and then we would not be able to use any of the revenue from the TIFS.

50:24

I'm not sure the status of that.

50:29

And was that a no that we don't think so, or uh no, we've looked at it pretty thoroughly and we didn't see anything new.

50:36

I don't think we're aware of anything.

50:38

We're not aware of anything, but obviously we'll continue to review any legislation and look at whatever might be impacting our our revenues.

50:46

That's part of when we develop our revenue forecast, we definitely look at proposals or impacts of proposed legislation, state's budget that may impact any of our revenues, and that that's just part of the process.

50:59

Okay, thank you.

51:02

Chair, I have a related to the question just asked.

51:05

Can I just piggyback off of the point?

51:07

Yes.

51:08

Okay, Commissioner Frank.

51:09

Um just you know, to add a little bit of specificity here.

51:12

I think the question is sort of, you know, we saw a digital ad tax at the state level.

51:17

Um, and so based upon that passage, are we seeing a potential impact to our revenue for our Cook County budget?

51:31

I think this is asking questions.

51:42

Thank you, Commissioner Vasquez.

51:44

If I get this correct, I'm hearing digital ads taxing the state public.

51:54

Thank you, Laura.

51:55

Um my understanding is that thank you, Commissioner Rasmus.

51:58

My understanding is the digital ad tax pass at the General Assembly preempts our home rule authority to implement such things.

52:09

Can you just explain that in a little bit more detail?

52:12

We won't be able to do it.

52:13

We won't be able to do it.

52:14

That's correct.

52:15

We can add to it according to the legislation.

52:18

But Laura, the question is what revenue is that generating, and I suppose you know, like I I understand that there is some potential or perhaps ongoing litigation around that.

52:30

I just want to know kind of where that's at and more specifically, like yeah, if you could just explain how that would um limit our ability to do something.

52:42

Oh, can we think that's a good idea?

52:44

Yeah, let any go ahead, Laura.

52:46

I think we just want you to answer the general questions.

52:49

Go ahead.

52:50

After Laura's uh thank you, Commissioner Laura Lekowitz Felicion, General Counsel to uh County Board President Program.

53:02

So the digital advertising tax that was passed at the state level preempts home rule units of government from implementing a similar or the same type of tax.

53:10

So what that means is Cook County, City of Chicago, other home rule units are um prohibited from implementing that type of revenue, um, that type of tax initiative.

53:21

Uh my understanding is that the state um I don't know to what extent they will start collecting it.

53:30

I don't believe that they are planning to spend the money as it's anticipated that it will be litigated and it's being litigated um elsewhere throughout the country.

53:40

Uh thank you.

53:41

And you know, I am an optimist, so I am hoping that we will have a positive outcome from that litigation.

53:47

And if that is the case, has there been conversations around what those funds could be used for?

53:51

And is Cook County advocating for um some of those funds?

53:55

So for the funds are um budgeted at the state level.

54:00

Um we annually ask for um revenue assistance from the state for various initiatives as part of our legislative um you know outreach and plan that we submit annually um before the state uh House and Senate.

54:17

Uh we always look for you know opportunities to be able to receive some assistance at the state level.

54:23

Um, but that will be for future discussions is to determine if the state is going to provide any of that revenue to you know other units of government.

54:32

Thank you.

54:33

Um my understanding is that you know the city of Chicago was looking at some similar progressive revenue measures and uh the projections from that revenue look really substantial, exactly.

54:45

Um and so I would love to be a partner in advocating that Cook County specifically Cook County Health, you know, gets a piece of that piece we know now through what has been discussed in this presentation because of all of the attacks on our health care system, we are um incurring some debt.

55:04

Um, and so would love to see Cook County proactively advocate for some of that revenue.

55:10

Um I know that the litigation is ongoing, but if we could start making the case now, because I do believe you know Cook County is the largest, the second largest county in the country, and we provide a great deal of support to the constituents of the state of Illinois.

55:24

Um so appreciate the update and would encourage conversations to um advocate for those uh that revenue stream once it's aggressive advocacy, says my colleague, Commissioner Stance.

55:35

Thank you.

55:35

Thank you, Commissioner, and and just you know, when the state was looking at the digital advertising tax, we were in conversations.

55:42

Um we were of the impression that it wasn't going to move forward.

55:46

Um we tried to make sure that the county was um either had an opportunity to receive revenue similar to the cannabis um tax or that there was no preemption.

55:54

Unfortunately, it did go forward with the preemption, so that's something that we could look at in the future at the state level.

56:00

There are other opportunities potentially at the local level to um implement taxes on like a social media related platform that might be different than the digital advertising tax.

56:10

But as we know there, including the city of Chicago, that's currently the subject of litigation, and Ashley could probably speak to um you know the various revenue initiatives that we're looking at a little bit more.

56:22

Could Ashley speak to the various revenues?

56:25

Thank you.

56:36

Thank you, Commissioner Vasquez.

56:38

Um we are, as we've discussed previously, looking at various revenue options, some of them have been mentioned prior, right?

56:44

How do we generate what we call ancillary revenue from our existing public assets, things like land lease agreements on surface lots, et cetera.

56:52

We're also taking um exploratory measures to look at other revenue sources.

56:57

That analysis is underway.

56:59

I anticipate will come forward to the commissioners and share what is coming of that, but we we are taking a look at um what is possible under our home rule authority, the impacts of General Assembly legislation, what we could do in the future beyond fiscal 27, for example, as you've heard in the the dialogue today.

57:19

Thank you so much.

57:20

Um and you know, I'm very grateful to my colleagues to allow me this line of questioning ahead of uh seniority, and I'm gonna take advantage and ask one more question, and I promise I'll stop.

57:30

Um so in these uh explored exploration, yeah, in the exploration phase that we're currently in around revenue, does that also include data centers looking at uh how Cook County can potentially tax data centers.

57:45

Commissioner Vasis, what I would say is we are looking at what we call our horizon one, what could be achieved in the immediate term or short term, and then we'll move into horizon two.

57:54

So something like that I would imagine would take more longer term analysis, potential advocacy, for example, and so I would say uh not at this time, but we're looking at um what is possible and and uh please mute yourself if you're so I would say we're looking at what is possible in the future as well.

58:14

Thank you.

58:15

And I I do think you know, looking at what we can implement immediately is incredibly important, but I think you know, daring to think long-term and imagine what we can do.

58:24

Um, there's a lot of conversations on data centers and how much they're costing us.

58:29

Um, and so I appreciate uh you know, including looking at data centers specifically for that sort of long-term planning.

58:35

Um, and I'm really grateful for um the um Bureau and also the State's attorney's office for entertaining my suggestions on progressive revenue.

58:45

So appreciate the the follow-up and I look forward to learning more about the options you all are exploring.

58:50

Absolutely, thank you.

58:52

Commissioner Trevor.

58:54

Thank you, Chair.

58:55

Um several of my questions have been asked already, so I'm just gonna focus on one.

58:59

Uh and this has to do with the um the uh forecasted shortfalls that we see, uh, particularly looking at page five, but specifically about the the shortfalls we see with regard to the changes in Medicaid for 2027.

59:16

And I, you know, from our discussions uh with uh CCH, we know that uh there are shortfalls in 26 because of changes uh associated with HR one, specifically with ACA redetermination, and I assume that some of that, if we were to look at what what our finances were in 2025 versus what we see in 2027, that not only are we looking at changes because of Medicaid, we're also two years out looking at those changes with respect to the ACA.

1:00:00

And the reason why I'm asking this is that when I try to explain to constituents or try to um have discussions with our our uh federal and state elected officials, I would very much like to have uh a solid estimate of just how much HR1 has impacted Cook County's overall finances with a combination of you know ACA, Medicaid cuts, uh and changes in regulations as well as any other grant or any other aspects of the HR one on our budget.

1:00:22

Do we have that kind of an estimate?

1:00:26

Um thank you, Commissioner Trevor.

1:00:28

Um, with respect to exact estimates around ACA, as you mentioned, I think we'd have to um speak with our CCH colleagues and uh let them opine upon that.

1:00:37

But in terms of a collective impact, that's something we'll can we continue to assess.

1:00:42

And um I cannot give you uh uh an all-in number at this moment.

1:00:46

I think that may be what you're looking for.

1:00:49

Do you have any ballpark uh range?

1:00:52

Something.

1:00:53

I mean, obviously it's gonna be more than I'm looking at 405 million uh FY 2027 forecast on page five.

1:01:04

I'm assuming that the bulk of that is because of HR one.

1:01:07

Yeah, it's in the it's in the go ahead.

1:01:12

The budget directory.

1:01:14

Yeah, let she has it.

1:01:17

Thank you, Commissioner Trevor.

1:01:18

Again, uh the details have to come out from the CCH you know team who's come today.

1:01:24

Um but uh back then when we produced the pretty money forecast, they estimated the uh HR1 impact at about 138 million dollars in the for 2027 forecast.

1:01:36

For for this year, for 2027.

1:01:38

So this is for 2027.

1:01:39

When is coming to 26?

1:01:41

We do not have the specific figures this moment.

1:01:44

When when we if we could somehow come up with that estimate, I would very much I think it would be a very useful number in our discussions, uh both with constituents and also uh with other elected officials in terms of explaining the budget and perhaps lobbying for some changes at the federal level.

1:02:03

We will leave it's the numbers in five, but we'll confirm with uh CCH.

1:02:08

Because if you look at slide five, it starts with the actuals from 25 through the forecasted period of 2027, and I think the total sum is uh 405 has been the total of 405 million has been the uh impact since we calculated based on FR25 actuals, but only they can confirm that.

1:02:31

All right, thank you.

1:02:32

And the hospital will be here later this this afternoon.

1:02:38

Thank you.

1:02:39

Your call has been for that's not me.

1:02:42

Commissioner Stanley is not amazing.

1:02:46

Please record your message.

1:02:47

Please say.

1:02:54

Uh good morning.

1:02:55

Thank you, Chair.

1:02:57

Uh thank you for uh all of the the presentation and the questions that have been asked.

1:03:01

I only have a couple.

1:03:02

Uh one uh I want to double down on what um Commissioner Vasquez is proposing.

1:03:08

Um I think that we voted uh a year or so ago to to put a lot of money, like billions of dollars, big money, I'm sure I I can't think of the amount right now, um, toward the data center that's going out uh for us.

1:03:24

And I think the quantum center.

1:03:26

The quantum center, thank you, the quantum center.

1:03:28

And so when Avasca is asked, I'm thinking about that property as well.

1:03:33

When we make that kind of investment, it would seem to me that we would it would be a part of the first phase to see what money we can get back.

1:03:41

Um that's going to help our county.

1:03:45

Your call has been both environmental here.

1:03:55

So I just want to I want to say that I think that it's important for me to even hear how we lead what we've made this investment, and this is what we anticipate.

1:04:03

This is what the ask.

1:04:05

So, yeah, I did say aggressive advocacy at the state level as well.

1:04:09

I was kind of um chagrined as to why we were not participating in a more robust way.

1:04:14

I got an answer for it, but I think that given this environment, this political environment, it's imperative that we um have aggressive advocacy at the state level and continue to be in partnership and understand how we're going to benefit because Cook County and the City of Chicago carries so much weight on its shoulders for the state, and we need to get something back a whole lot more than we are.

1:04:39

But I think that only happens when we demand that.

1:04:42

Um the other question I have, um I heard in one of the reports that there was a decline in cigarette sales tax, but I was wondering wanting to know how do we tax vapes and how much money could we potentially stand to get from taxing vapes, which too are highly addictive, pairing up your lungs, but yet they're in all of the stores, gas stations, everywhere you look, they are selling vapes.

1:05:10

So how are we, you know?

1:05:13

I'm just curious about the taxes.

1:05:18

Okay, thank you.

1:05:23

So I think probably the best person to answer this would be our Department of Revenue, but I'll give you a question.

1:05:29

I'm sorry, Mike.

1:05:30

Sorry, thank you.

1:05:31

Thank you, Commissioner.

1:05:32

Sorry about that.

1:05:33

So probably the best person to talk about this would be um you know Tina Kotsella from our Department of Revenue.

1:05:39

I don't know if she's available, but I would say generally speaking, the way that we tax uh vape is based on you know the percentage of uh uh liters of nicotine in a particular um like container.

1:05:53

Um so uh using that information in the way that we tax it is just like any other tax, we have the the retailers submit a report and and and provide the taxes on those items.

1:06:06

Um I don't know, Kanako, if you have the number for what we project in other tobacco products for uh 2026 or 2027.

1:06:16

I think that might be useful for this conversation.

1:06:19

For that tobacco products we are expecting about uh six million in 2026 and a 6.5 in 2027, Commissioner.

1:06:28

Thank you.

1:06:29

Absolutely.

1:06:29

And Commissioners for uh the the bill that we're referring to that was referred to past the House 7341 and the Senate 3619, according according to party lines.

1:06:40

So it passed out of the Democratic majority.

1:06:45

I'm saying that one more time.

1:06:47

Out of the House, 7341, and the Senate was 3619.

1:06:53

I believe uh very close to party line, those club party lines.

1:06:58

Thank you, sir.

1:07:08

Yes.

1:07:12

I'm curious when you when we um that six point that six million, that's six point four million um that's projected.

1:07:19

Are those taxes or are is that money um sent to a dedicated space or line or or or deficit?

1:07:29

Like is it sent to health and hospitals based on the care that we are providing, and we know that there is some connection, whether it's you know to one of our specialized clinics or anything.

1:07:39

I'm just curious where does the money go once it's collected?

1:07:42

Is it dedicated to the goes to the general fund?

1:07:44

Just the general fund.

1:07:46

Okay, thank you.

1:07:50

Are you finished, Commissioner?

1:07:52

Are you finished?

1:07:54

Uh Commissioner Scott, followed by Commissioner.

1:07:57

Thank you, Mr.

1:07:58

Chair.

1:07:58

Um good morning, uh, and thank you for the presentation.

1:08:02

Um Dean, you you talked about uh economic indicators and us projecting based on kind of what's happening globally, um Washington.

1:08:15

Um then you talked a little bit about or can you explain to me how how do you get that information?

1:08:25

I can't remember exactly what you said, so I'm I'm wanting you to rehash how how you get that.

1:08:30

And then my question to that is um as the the war continues and exacerbates over in Iran.

1:08:41

Are are those going to change?

1:08:43

And I'm sure they are, but you know, have you forecasted a change in um the budget, you know, as violence has picked up in in Iran?

1:08:55

Yeah, so um we receive information from an organization called Moody's Analytics that provides uh economic indicators based on various scenarios.

1:09:10

They have base case scenarios, they have worst-case scenarios, they have optimistic scenarios of what those economic indicators will be, and they're usually accompanied with a narrative that talks about what may be um the geopolitical impacts that may be having.

1:09:26

So obviously, in this case, the war in Iran has a significant impact on our economic indicators, particularly as it relates to inflation and how that may impact productivity in the United States.

1:09:37

And so what we'll do, and we do every year every kind of like quarter through like the Independent Revenue Forecasting Commission, and certainly a little bit more frequently as we lead into the executive recommendation is take a look at those economic indicators and see how they correlate to our particular revenue streams.

1:10:00

In so much as they are correlated, we'll then leverage those economic indicators to identify what the trajectory of our of our revenues will be in 2027 and 2028.

1:10:06

And we're looking at that kind of constantly updating it as best we can based on um you know professionals that are making those estimates as opposed to kind of trying to estimate internally what those impacts may be.

1:10:19

This is Moody's the rating agency uh spin-off of.

1:10:24

Yeah, they would probably have me tell you that they're not separate, they're completely separate organizations and they're not uh the same organization.

1:10:32

But yes, I'm sure they would.

1:10:37

As um we talk about streamlining or tightening belts before we we look at other revenue sources.

1:10:45

Um is it possible, and I'm I'm sure you might not have this now, but through the chair, making sure that I I'd like to know our all of FTEs that we have, County, and then all of the vacancies, because in in my time at the city, um, a lot of times when we talk about streamlining and we talk about tightening the belts, we talk about efficiencies, a lot of that comes on the back of the vacancies.

1:11:18

And so I I'd just like to know kind of where we are.

1:11:20

So if you could, if you don't have that, if you could provide that through the chair, that would be uh greatly appreciated.

1:11:26

Do you have that?

1:11:27

Can I go ahead and vacancies and FTEs?

1:11:32

Yes, Commissioner.

1:11:33

Um as of May 31, and so end of the quarter too, county has about 2900 vacancies.

1:11:41

And uh for when it's come to 2026 budget, the department have just summited the budget request, we are starting the analysis.

1:11:48

So we do not have any uh preliminary analysis done yet.

1:11:52

But we are gonna go through what kind of vacancies we must you know keep to make sure that maintaining the you know essential operations and what we might be able to forecall.

1:12:02

So that's analysis will come.

1:12:03

When when when you do that analysis, can you provide that uh to the commissioners if possible?

1:12:09

That day foundation would be a part of the uh 2027 executive budget recommendation.

1:12:14

Awesome.

1:12:15

Um as we creep up on the end of the year and um there is you know still some some ARPA money outstanding.

1:12:26

Can you let me know kind of where we are as it relates to ARPA and ARPA spending?

1:12:31

Um will we be finished spending all of that money by the end of the year?

1:12:36

And for those who are languishing in spending that money, what are our plans to make sure that that is all spent so we don't give any of that back?

1:12:49

I can respond to that.

1:12:50

So we have approximately 40 million dollars that has not been spent on the actual that has not been allocated from our budgets, and then we have about 40 million dollars that we're waiting to get reimbursement information from from.

1:13:04

So that's a totally like kind of hand wavy number, about 80 million dollars that is outstanding, if you will.

1:13:11

And so we'll be working really closely with the departments to make sure that they get all of all of their invoices in, that they're making sure that the vendors are processing their reimbursement statements, making sure that we're getting all of that information from those uh from our from the departments so that we can spend the full value.

1:13:29

I am I I have um very uh little doubt that we will spend the full value of the money, and even if we do, we'll have uh other less attractive options that we can deploy in the event that we find ourselves in a position where there is a um uh the we may need to do transfers in order to make sure that we are kind of legally spent all of the funds.

1:13:56

With that being said, I you know you have on I don't know what pages, I think it's 18.

1:14:03

Um a list of things we've covered through 2027 and then some that are not covered through 28 and the like.

1:14:16

Is that a part of the the options of how we how do I say that?

1:14:23

So like like you know, I know we want to spend everything.

1:14:27

It's all been assigned.

1:14:29

Some people are not as diligent in spending that money as we would like them to be.

1:14:34

Um then there are some other options that you know we're able to spend the money like that, and I know that we're looking at all of those.

1:14:42

Are any of these that we have here in this this um the stuff that we've been spending out of the reserve now?

1:14:51

Are these any other programs that we can turn on and spend some of that money, or is that not possible because it's in out outward years of like 28, 29, 30?

1:15:02

Yeah, I think right, like it would the it's is a little bit different, kind of like um I think it's possible, um, but but it would depend on how quickly these particular programs would be able to spend the funds before the end of 2027.

1:15:19

So we would be prioritizing programs like that or before the end of 2026, I should say.

1:15:24

So we'd be prioritizing programs like that to transfer funds to if that's what we wanted to do.

1:15:31

Um, I think right now we're operating under the assumption that everybody is going to spend the money that we have allocated for, and we're not in a position that we're doing significant transfers, but obviously those would be brought to the board in the event that we did, just like we had during the last board meeting.

1:15:47

Okay.

1:15:47

Well, one of the programs that I know is one that I'm I'm really fond of, one that I think is very needed across the county, and that is the uh homeowners down payment assistance program that the money goes out of the door just like that.

1:16:03

Um would would love for you to make sure that you're keeping an eye on the balance, and because the necessity is so great across the the county.

1:16:17

Um that that is a program that we know works, we know that we can put money into and that we keep an eye and be able to transfer to there when we have a chance.

1:16:27

Um that's all for me, Mr.

1:16:28

Chair.

1:16:29

Thank you.

1:16:29

And again, thank you guys for the presentation.

1:16:31

Thank you.

1:16:38

You do keep that in mind, Commissioner.

1:16:48

Commissioner McCasco.

1:16:51

Thank you, Chair.

1:16:53

Thank you all for the presentation.

1:16:55

Actually, you have answered the majority of my questions.

1:16:57

Thank you very much for your responses regarding specifically the data centers and also what trends were actually uh driving the current budget situation.

1:17:06

Um, just a couple of questions.

1:17:08

So when we look in comparison to our peers across the county, are we pretty much aligned with everyone else where everyone is seeing these particular deficits, or are you thinking there are some evidence-based um uh tech uh strategies that we could be using that are being used elsewhere?

1:17:27

I'm gonna actually I'm trying to we do rely on uh NACO data, but I think what's unique about uh the county is the hospital aspect and the litigation we currently have with the road builders.

1:17:44

Um I would imagine from a Federal grants perspective, other counties are impacted, but we do have two unique elements that maybe most well, we do have two unique elements that most other county counties wouldn't have that is driving our deficit.

1:17:59

And that's the highest of the health issue and then health care and the road builders, the transportation funds.

1:18:05

Thank you.

1:18:05

And then with regard to the 258 million dollars, um, are we going to make will there be a concerted effort to um have the city and the state pay into that with us because it is road related, or is that completely 100 percent um county?

1:18:23

We are the only ones.

1:18:25

We are the only ones facing litigation.

1:18:28

Correct.

1:18:28

We so under the road builders, we are the only ones facing litigation at this point, um, which is why it's unique.

1:18:36

Uh unique unique to our current budget deficit situation.

1:18:41

And lastly, with regard to performance base, if we look at performance-based outcomes, as you began your review, I know you probably can't tell me right now, but as you begin your review, when we look at the different bureaus and um different organizations within the county, are there uh like a if you did a three-year look back, are we seeing the outcomes because we continue to increase budgets?

1:19:02

I'm just wondering if we're receiving the return on investment or services that the taxpayers need to see so that we can justify why we continue to increase budgets, because the as commissioners we often hear about the things that are not happening.

1:19:17

We hear about the great things too, but we often hear about what did not occur, but we know we are raising budget.

1:19:24

So if you could just take a look at that and see if we're actually doing performance-based outcome as we uh continue to raise budgets.

1:19:31

Thank you.

1:19:32

And then the Department of ROI is trying to make that connection specifically with the ARPA project, so maybe they'll be able to talk more about that, but we'll connect with them on in response to your question.

1:19:44

Thank you, Director.

1:19:45

Thank you.

1:19:48

Questions?

1:19:49

If not, Commissioner, I know Vice Chair Laura to bring a point up.

1:19:55

Thank you, Chairman.

1:20:00

I just wanted to note for uh Commissioner Gaynor and all uh of my colleagues, uh the Office of the President, the President herself, uh Cook County Health, um, Vice Chair and Io for Health and Hospitals and myself are planning a trip to DC.

1:20:10

We're gonna have a meeting with all of uh our congressional delegation that's gonna take place in mid-September.

1:20:16

Uh so absolutely embrace what's going on at the federal level, and we're gonna do everything we can with the friends that we have in DC to try to address it on behalf of the county.

1:20:25

Thanks.

1:20:27

It should be good.

1:20:29

No other questions?

1:20:30

Thank you.

1:20:31

Thank you, very much.

1:20:32

Thank you.

Discussion Breakdown — Share of Meeting
Fiscal Sustainability█████████████████████████████████████████████57%
Public Engagement███████████14%
Public Health████████10%
Health Equity█████6%
Cannabis Regulation██3%
Digital Divide██3%
Budget Equity Analysis██2%
Procurement██2%
Medicaid/Insurance██2%
Summary of Proceedings

Cook County FY26 & FY27 Preliminary Budget Forecast, July 21, 2026

At a meeting on July 21, 2026, Cook County CFO Angela Manning and the Bureau of Finance presented a preliminary mid-year budget forecast. They projected a $211.4 million shortfall for FY26 (less than 3% of the annual appropriation) and a much larger gap of over $550 million for FY27, driven primarily by federal legislation (HR1), inflation due to the war in Iran, rising payroll and pension costs, and the ongoing impact of the Road Builders’ litigation. The presentation emphasized fiscal discipline but warned that without structural solutions, reserves would fall below the floor by the end of FY27 and turn negative by FY29.

Public Comments & Testimony

  • No public comments were recorded.

Discussion Items

  • FY26 and FY27 Budget Gaps: CFO Manning and Deputy CFO Dean Constantina explained that the FY26 gap of $211.4 million (under 3% of appropriations) is manageable, but FY27 shows a combined gap of more than $550 million across the General Fund and Health Enterprise Fund. The primary drivers are the loss of allowable expenses under the transportation fund (due to Road Builders litigation), a projected $108.9 million increase in payroll without new positions, and fringe benefit growth of $35.4 million.
  • Revenue and Expense Variances (FY26): The county expects a favorable year-end variance of $266.3 million in General Fund revenue, largely due to a one-time $150 million cigarette tax settlement and $122.7 million above-appropriated sales tax. Expenses are projected $16.8 million below budget. The Health Enterprise Fund expects total revenues to exceed budget by $315.9 million due to a one-time $330 million appropriation adjustment, but base revenue (excluding that adjustment) shows mixed performance: County Care capitation is $103.9 million above budget, while patient fee revenues are $92.9 million short.
  • Health Enterprise Fund Pressures: The Fund projects a $214.7 million gap in FY27 due to HR1’s impact on Medicaid eligibility. County Care membership is expected to drop from 379,000 to 334,000, lowering capitation revenue by about $250 million. Net patient service revenue is forecast to drop by $164.8 million, while the uninsured population grows by approximately $100 million. Payroll, pharmaceuticals, and uncompensated care costs continue to rise.
  • Fiscal Strategies: The county plans to address the FY27 gap through both expense-side actions (targeted belt-tightening, vacancy assessment, multi-year planning) and revenue-side exploration (leveraging existing assets, new revenue opportunities). CFO Manning emphasized that restructuring will be a multi-year effort, with some revenue ideas targeted for FY28. A more robust long-range budget process will be implemented.
  • ARPA Sustainability Reserve: The county will allocate $52.6 million from the ARPA sustainability reserve in FY27 to sustain 12 key programs. A projected gap of $42.3 million remains for FY28-30, which the county plans to address through external funds, program-generated revenues, or scaling down initiatives.
  • Pension Fund: The county remains committed to making actuarially determined contributions to the pension fund, which currently has a 68.9% funded ratio. The state’s Public Act 103-0529 ensures contributions are made, with a projected drop in annual contributions after 2047 when legacy liabilities are paid down.
  • Impact of HR1 (One Big Beautiful Bill): HR1 is expected to reduce County Care membership by 16.2% and reduce patient service revenues by $45.4 million for CCH. It also affects directed payments. Commissioner Trevor requested a total estimate of HR1’s cumulative impact; the budget director noted an approximate $138 million impact on FY27 alone, with a total of $405 million since FY25 base, pending CCH confirmation.
  • Digital Ad Tax Preemption: General Counsel Laura Lechowicz-Felicione explained that the state’s digital ad tax preempts county home rule authority to implement a similar tax, though the county could advocate for a share of the revenue if litigation is resolved favorably.
  • TIF Surplus: Information on the FY27 TIF surplus will not be available until October, when the City of Chicago declares its surplus.
  • Cannabis and Vape Taxation: The county projects $12 million in cannabis tax revenue. Commissioner Gainer requested an analysis comparing that revenue to costs of law enforcement, public health, and hospital systems related to cannabis use. Vape taxes are projected at $6 million in FY26 and $6.5 million in FY27, with proceeds going to the General Fund.
  • Vacancies and ARPA Spending: The county has approximately 2,900 vacancies as of May 31. The budget director will include vacancy analysis in the FY27 executive recommendation. ARPA has about $80 million outstanding (allocated but unspent or pending reimbursement); the county is working to ensure all funds are spent by year-end, with potential transfers to high-utilization programs like the homeowner down payment assistance program.
  • Economic Indicators: Deputy CFO Constantina described using Moody’s Analytics scenario analyses to incorporate the impact of the war in Iran and other geopolitical events into revenue forecasts. Inflation and energy prices are expected to slow GDP growth in 2027, affecting sales tax revenues.

Key Outcomes

  • The Board will receive ongoing updates through monthly revenue/expense reports, the IRFC report in October, and the executive budget recommendation.
  • The county will continue aggressive advocacy at the federal and state levels, including a planned trip to Washington, D.C., in mid-September to address HR1 and other federal issues.
  • The Bureau of Finance will explore and present new revenue options (horizon one short-term, horizon two long-term) to the Board.
  • CFO Manning committed to providing a deeper analysis of HR1’s cumulative financial impact on the county.
  • Commissioner Scott requested and will receive (via the chair) a detailed breakdown of all FTEs and vacancies to inform belt-tightening discussions.
  • The Board acknowledged the risk of potential pension fund consolidation with the City of Chicago and will continue to monitor pension legislation in Springfield, opposing any such moves.

Meeting Transcript

Okay, thank you. Good morning. Can everyone hear me? Good morning, Board of Commissioners. Thank you. It is a pleasure to be here as the CFO to provide an overview of our preliminary forecast, which is the mid-year projection of the year-in revenues and expenses for fiscal year 26 and an initial forecast of the projected FY27 revenues and expenditures for our two major operating funds, the General Fund and the Health Enterprise Fund. We present this preliminary forecast while navigating several uncertainties. These projections are based on what we know today. FY26 has already been filled with several challenges with additional difficulties expected in fiscal year 27. However, it is important to recognize that the years of discipline and financial responsibility have put the county in a strong position to address these challenges and are positioned to continue the important work and priorities of President Pret Winkel and the Board of Commissioners. While outside factors can cause unexpected changes to the revenue and expenditure projections we are putting forward today. This preliminary forecast is designed to provide a transparent look at the current and anticipated Cook County budgets. We will continue to monitor the ever changing fiscal environment and provide relevant updates in the forthcoming budget recommendation. I want to thank the entire Bureau of Finance for the work they do every day. I have only been here about a month, and I can already see what a great team we have in place. Our strong finance team starts with this impressive team. Also want to thank the entire Board of Commissioners for your input and guidance. I look forward to working with each and every one of you as we continue to put forward important initiatives while being mindful of our long-term finances. And with that, I believe we are ready to start our presentation with CANACO. Good. Good morning, Commissioners. Today's presentation begins with a review of a key economic indicators that influence financial outlook, not only for the county, but also nation as a whole. We will then provide an overview of the preliminary year-end forecast for fiscal year 2026 and the initial projection for 2027 for the county's two largest operating funds, General Fund and the Health Enterprise Fund. Finally will conclude with updates on our ongoing commitments. With that, I pass to our deputy CFO, Dean Constantina. Thank you very much, CANACO. So, as you are all aware, the county's revenues are really closely tied to economic conditions. So whenever we open the preliminary budget, we want to make sure we understand what is happening in the economy today and kind of what we expect in the future. So since COVID, we have seen a real precipitous drop in the rate of inflation to a level that approached normal at the end of last year. However, largely due to the war in Iran, we have seen some increases in the rate of inflation as higher energy prices begin to impact other commodities. We can reasonably expect that these increases in inflation will also impact the cost of goods for the county and the members of our community. Real gross domestic product, which is closely tied to our sales tax revenue growth, is expected to remain about the 2 percent 2 percent level across our forecasting period as kind of assumed by most of the major forecasters. However, more recent forecasts, like those developed by Moody's and the survey of professional forecasters, are coalescing around the idea the higher energy prices at the start of this year will translate into slower growth in 2027. In total, economic indicators are being depressed by the war in Iran and the corresponding impact on commodity prices. These are factors that are outside of our control but have a direct impact on our revenues. So it is very important that we keep an eye on these as we plan for the future. What is also largely outside next slide, please. What is also largely outside of our control is the impact of Federal legislation. The one big beautiful bill or HR1 is expected to have a significant change on our FY 2027 revenues. The legislation takes direct aim at Medicaid recipients, particularly the ACA adult population, which is projected to decline by about 16.2 percent at county care. And translates to a $944 million difference if we were to compare it to what we would have expected prior to the passage of HR 1. HR1 is also expected to decrease the patient service revenues and directed payments that Cook County Hospital system is expected to receive. As people lose access to Medicaid, those that cannot afford insurance are forced to pay out of pocket. These self-pay patients are much less likely to pay their bills. And this translates into a $45.4 million reduction in patient fees and directed payments for CCH, but for the passage of HR1. I'll now turn it over. So these and some other external factors are really what's uh resulting in a projected preliminary gap that is really nominally the largest we've seen in nearly 16 years. And I'll I'll turn it over to our budget director to provide us with more details about that. Thank you, Dean. The bar graph here illustrates county's historical budget gap.

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