Thu, Feb 5, 2026·San Jose, California·City Council

San José Study Session: 2026-2027 Preliminary General Fund Forecast & Budget Priorities (Feb. 5, 2026)

Discussion Breakdown

Municipal Finance52%
Homelessness14%
Economic Development9%
Community Engagement5%
Affordable Housing5%
Parks and Recreation5%
Public Safety3%
Child Care2%
Technology and Innovation2%
Engineering And Infrastructure1%
Transportation Safety1%
Personnel Matters1%

Summary

San José Study Session: 2026-2027 Preliminary General Fund Forecast & Budget Priorities (Feb. 5, 2026)

City Council held a study session to set preliminary budget priorities for FY 2026–2027 in response to a projected ongoing General Fund shortfall of $55–$65 million. Staff presented key revenue and expenditure drivers (including slow job growth, soft commercial property values, and rising personnel costs), reviewed resident priority data, and previewed budget-balancing approaches emphasizing efficiencies, service optimization, and minimized community/workforce impacts before considering deeper service reductions. Councilmembers provided direction on services to preserve, areas to reevaluate, and criteria for reductions; public commenters urged preservation of immigration legal services and investments in East San José.

Discussion Items

  • Preliminary FY 2026–2027 General Fund forecast and drivers (Budget Director Jim Shannon)

    • Economic/revenue context: local job growth has been largely stagnant; office vacancies remain high, weighing on commercial property values; residential prices relatively steady but with fewer transactions.
    • Property tax: City receives ~14% of each property tax dollar; ERAF revenues estimated at ~$53M but subject to litigation risk (potential $9–$10M ongoing and $35–$39M one-time clawback exposure as described).
    • Sales tax: Includes the 1% Bradley-Burns share and a 0.25% local measure producing about $60M, set to expire in 2031 unless reauthorized; most categories weakened except county pool (online sales) and food products.
    • Utility/franchise fees: strong recent performance due to higher rates; expected to slow as rates level.
    • Expenditure pressures: about 76% of ongoing General Fund spending tied to personnel (salaries/overtime, health/fringe, retirement). Retirement costs are stabilized at a high share; contributions next year projected higher than previously due to market conditions limiting prefunding and assumptions reflecting higher wage inflation.
    • Other cost pressures: IT subscriptions, facilities, contractual adjustments; committed additions for O&M of new facilities (e.g., Fire Station 36 and Columbus Park, rising to ~$9M over five years as presented). Interim housing portfolio projected $17M (FY 26–27) with increasing General Fund backfill as external funding fluctuates.
    • Budget balancing posture: departments issued targets totaling $60M to generate proposals; only ~two-thirds of the General Fund considered discretionary in the near term due to required costs, revenue offsets, and state mandates.
    • Reserves/one-time pressures: budget stabilization reserve below policy target (policy 10%; staff noted it is south of 6% and expected lower); one-time needs cited included a City Hall water intrusion project (~$45M) and potential ERAF lookback exposure; staff noted possible need of ~$20M to meet ending fund balance targets.
    • Process milestones: Five-year forecast release March 2; Mayor’s March Budget Message deliberation March 17; proposed budget release around May 1; adoption targeted June 16.
  • Community perceptions and organizational capacity (Assistant City Manager Lee Wilcox)

    • Community top concerns remain cost of living, homelessness, and housing affordability; increasing concern about visual blight (graffiti/overgrown spaces).
    • Resident satisfaction trends have improved (noted gains in illegal dumping cleanup, EMS, downtown vibrancy, animal control), but staff emphasized these gains are fragile without sustained capacity.
    • Staff framed work through Council focus areas vs. core services and stressed sequencing due to limited organizational bandwidth.
  • Council priority-setting discussion (Mayor and Council)

    • Vice Mayor Foley
      • Position: Maintain current focus areas and avoid modifying them; preserve library hours (especially Sundays), crossing guards, and Vision Zero/Quick Builds.
      • Position: Find alternative funding (e.g., grants) for traffic safety; pursue funding solutions for the AB 645 automated speed camera program.
      • Position: Consider reductions in non-core/duplicative services; if proposing new programs, identify offsets.
    • Councilmember Ortiz
      • Position: Support an East San José Economic Revitalization Framework and stated he secured a soft philanthropic commitment to fund half of the consultant cost, while requesting City participation (“skin in the game”).
      • Position: Preserve investments tied to small business corridor safety, youth intervention/violence prevention (referencing Project HOPE, crime intervention, New Hope for Youth/City Peace Project-type approaches), and maintain/strengthen partnerships (e.g., Grail Family Services).
      • Position: Increase accountability for neglected property owners and ensure City Attorney capacity for code enforcement litigation.
      • Position: Continue prioritizing affordability measures, rent relief protections, and new funding streams for affordable housing.
    • Councilmember Candelas
      • Position: Preserve youth programming, placemaking (including Viva Parks), library hours, and senior nutrition services.
      • Position: Seek efficiencies in BeautifySJ (argued investment not reducing dumping as expected) and improve encampment management coordination with the County.
      • Position: Proposed considering an added/explicit focus area centered on vulnerable families (youth/seniors) and emphasized pursuing regional funding opportunities.
    • Councilmember Kamei
      • Position: Keep existing focus areas; emphasized public/community safety priorities.
      • Position: Raise vigilance about external impacts on City revenues (e.g., state actions “raiding” local funds) and the need for proactive intergovernmental strategy.
      • Position: Support process optimization to reduce workflow handoffs and delays (example: citation/code enforcement process).
      • Additional position later: Protect quality-of-life elements (arts, music, sports, activated public spaces) and consider phased/two-year reductions where feasible.
    • Councilmember Mulcahy
      • Position: Maintain focus areas but evaluate scope/sequencing and measurable outcomes; urged council discipline to avoid launching new initiatives that distract staff during cuts.
      • Position: Improve interjurisdictional coordination (County, Valley Water, Caltrans) and asked for tracking of staff time/cost “wasted” without clear MOUs.
      • Position: Review programs heavily reliant on the General Fund with limited measurable outcomes; examine one-time-to-ongoing program expansions.
      • Position: Consider structural changes, consolidation, and modernization; questioned whether historical headcount comparisons should drive current staffing targets (including for SJPD).
      • Position: Encourage strategic thinking for airport enterprise opportunities (e.g., hotel, expanded aviation services) to strengthen long-term revenues.
    • Councilmember Campos
      • Position: Supported revised budget principles emphasizing transparency and public engagement.
      • Position: Treat youth intervention as integral to community safety; preserve youth-serving programs in PRNS and library.
      • Position: Narrow/rethink neighborhood cleanup focus area (argued current investment is unsustainable and gains temporary); suggested moving it under community safety.
      • Position: Refine reducing unsheltered homelessness focus area, emphasizing prevention; cited survey results that only 10% rated City homelessness efforts excellent/good while 65% rated them poor/very poor.
      • Position: Review allocations to encampment management and beautification; evaluate cost effectiveness of OLIVE, Homeward Bound, and Outreach and Sanitation Services.
      • Position: Raised concern that General Fund support for interim housing is forecast to rise from $17M to $30M, $48M, and $58M in out years (as stated), calling the trajectory unsustainable without service model shifts.
      • Position: Invest thoughtfully in children, families, and seniors as vulnerable residents.
    • Councilmember Tordios
      • Position: Prioritize bureaucracy/process efficiency (“Bureaucracy Busters” concept).
      • Position: Expand ministerial approval permitting to reduce costs/time for applicants and staff and to encourage housing/job growth.
      • Position: Streamline code enforcement and increase use of technology to augment limited staff (parking, traffic safety, code enforcement).
    • Councilmember Duan
      • Position: Preserve and invest in children/youth services (New Hope/City projects serving youth), libraries, and housing stability for older adults and younger generations.
      • Position: Reaffirm support for immigrant communities’ access to services.
      • Position: Support cost reduction via pre-engineered/modular shelter and improving throughput from interim to permanent housing; seek reimbursements/greater contributions from other levels of government.
    • Mayor Mahan (closing reflections)
      • Framed session as priority-setting (not final decisions) under $55–$65M shortfall; stressed efficiencies first but acknowledged likely service impacts.
      • Noted improved performance and public trust trends; cited reduced crime (down over 20% in three years) and unsheltered homelessness (down about a third) as described in remarks, and reported trust in City Hall up over 37%.

Public Comments & Testimony

  • Jeremy Beruz (Amigos de Guadalupe Center for Justice & Empowerment)
    • Position: Urged Council to preserve $1M for immigration services; cited Vera Institute finding that represented individuals are 10 times more likely to have a positive case outcome; encouraged fundraising partnerships.
  • Community member statement read aloud (via speaker)
    • Position: Requested prioritization of immigrant communities as an emergency and urged completion of “remaining half million” for legal services; emphasized fear of immigration enforcement and family separation.
  • Shannon Zhang (Silicon Valley Council of Nonprofits / REAL Coalition)
    • Position: Supported revised budget principles emphasizing transparency/public engagement; urged centering racial equity commitments; called for preserving residents’ ability to remain in San José amid affordability pressures.
  • Ms. Ray Mendoza (Amigos de Guadalupe / Grupo de Justicia Migratoria)
    • Position: Strongly urged continued and increased funding for immigration legal services; argued the City should fundraise similarly to how it raised funds for major events; emphasized immigrants’ permanence in the community.
  • Chris Rodriguez (worker in San José)
    • Position: Asked Council to examine police budget increases and consider returning to lower prior-year spending levels to fund other priorities (including immigration support).
  • Heine Gonzalez (TETRA Committee / SOMOS Mayfair)
    • Position: Requested City investment in worker cooperatives as a community-wealth strategy; urged “creative, courageous, concrete” action amid attacks on migrant families.
  • Demars Estrada (SOMOS Mayfair)
    • Position: Urged support for East San José initiatives enabling dignified, sustainable, healthy living; argued prosperity has not flowed to East San José residents.
  • Guadalupe Perez (TETRA Committee / SOMOS Mayfair)
    • Position: Supported East San José revitalization and economic justice investments; emphasized excluded workers’ difficulty paying rent and living with both immigration and economic insecurity.

Key Outcomes

  • No votes or final budget decisions were taken; council input was collected to inform the Mayor’s March Budget Message.
  • Staff reaffirmed a preliminary $55–$65M ongoing General Fund shortfall for FY 2026–2027 and previewed a balancing approach prioritizing efficiencies, optimization, and minimized service/layoff impacts before deeper cuts.
  • Next steps: Five-year forecast release March 2; Mayor’s March Budget Message consideration March 17; proposed budget release around May 1; final adoption targeted June 16.

Meeting Transcript

All right. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome. I'd like to call to order this study session of the 2026-2027 Preliminary General Fund Forecast and Budget Priorities, also known as priority setting, to order for the afternoon of February 5th. Tony, would you please call the roll? Kamei? Campos? Present. Jordios? Here. Cohen? Here. Ortiz? Mulcahy? Here. Duan? Here. Candelas? Here. Casey? Here. Foley? Here. Mahan? Here. You have a quorum. Great. Thank you. I was about to do the Pledge of Allegiance and then I realized we don't do that in our study sessions. All right. Well, welcome everyone. Thank you all for being here. I'm just going to offer a few opening remarks and then I'll hand things over to our city manager. for her opening remarks and then we'll get to the staff presentation before we go to council discussion and finally public comment at the end of the study session. So I want to just start by thanking City Manager Jennifer McGuire, Assistant City Manager Lee Wilcox, their Deputy City Managers, and the Office of the City Managers, Budget Director Jim Shannon, Betty Young, Claudia Chang and the entire team, I think most of whom are here. I want to recognize the extraordinary work that staff has put in over the last several months behind the scenes, not maybe obvious to us in public meetings, but the team there has been working a way really with teams across the organization to prepare for both the mid-year budget review, which we will hear next week, and today's priority setting and all of the budget work that comes ahead. That effort shows, and I want to thank you all for your professionalism, hard work, and commitment to the city. So the purpose of today's session is to hear directly from the city council about priorities and values that will inform the development of my March budget message and ultimately guide the entire budget process we go through together, culminating in a final adoption of the budget in late June. Today is not about final decisions, it is about general direction and priorities. It's about grounding our next steps in a shared understanding of the fiscal reality we face and the outcomes we want to deliver for our residents. The city manager is preliminarily estimating an ongoing general fund shortfall in fiscal year 26-27 of 55 to 65 million dollars. While I know that the administration will get creative and think critically to identify cost efficiencies as they are already doing and we've already supported, we will have a lot of work to do to balance our budget. And by the way, that work by the administration isn't just about identifying cost efficiencies, it's also optimizing existing services so that we can make them more efficient without losing quality, generating new and generating new revenue sources. But collectively as we head into this process we will collectively have to discuss service reductions which requires us to have an honest conversation about our capacity and the trade-offs we're willing to make. None of the necessary trade-offs will be easy and none should be approached lightly. Our city manager will be very focused on minimizing community and workforce impacts. But service impacts are likely, and today gives us an opportunity to align on principles and approaches for responsibly and sustainably addressing this shortfall while maintaining focus on what matters most to our community. Even in the face of these fiscal constraints, our responsibility remains the same, to deliver tangible and visible results for the more than 1 million people who call San Jose home. That means continuing to prioritize the services that most directly affect residents' daily lives, while also positioning the city for long-term stability and growth. I also want to note that I'm excited to be working with this year's Budget Brown Act group, including Vice Mayor Foley and Council Members Cohen, Kamey, and Tordios. I appreciate their collaboration in this process, but today is really about hearing from the entire council. For today's session there will be, following today's session, there will be multiple additional opportunities for both city council and the general public to provide input. These include the city service budget study sessions, budget town halls that I'll be leading across the city, and the public hearings on the March and June messages. Today is one step in that longer process, but it is a critical one. The feedback shared in this chamber today will shape how we move forward, how we balance difficult choices, and how we stay accountable to the people we serve. I'm excited, colleagues, to delve into