West Linn Economic Development Training — October 10, 2024

On October 10, 2024, at 6:00 p.m., the West Linn City Council, Economic Development Committee, and Chamber leadership met in Council Chambers for an economic development training led by Jerry Johnson of Johnson Economics. The session reviewed local economic data, regional forecasts, development constraints, tourism opportunities, and possible next steps. No formal votes or decisions were made; it was an informational workshop.

Regional & Local Economic Context

• Jerry Johnson presented city-level data from LEHD/LODES, noting that it is less reliable than QCEW data and shows erratic patterns around the 2020 pandemic.
• West Linn's largest employment share is health care and social assistance, followed by professional, scientific, and technical services; public administration reportedly grew strongly while educational services declined sharply over an 11-year period, a finding participants questioned.
• Roughly twice as many West Linn residents commute out for work as commute in; 15.7% of resident workers also work in West Linn, with others commuting to Portland and other regional hubs.
• West Linn's population is aging and affluent: below the national average in ages 20–40, strong growth in ages 65 and over, high educational attainment (97.3% high school graduates), and household incomes well above average.

Development Constraints & Market Conditions

• Housing production has fallen sharply due to buildout; Metro's DSP model estimates only 500–1,100 additional residential units of capacity, mostly through redevelopment and infill.
• The 2024 Metro Buildable Land Inventory shows 0.4 acres of vacant commercial land plus 0.1 acre of commercial redevelopment land, and 3.7 acres of vacant industrial land, 1.2 acres of assumed industrial infill, and 1.0 acre of industrial redevelopment land.
• Johnson said higher-density and structured-parking development forms require high rents, and West Linn has few comparable rental projects; Lake Oswego comparables range from $1.80 to $2.25 per square foot, with outliers above $3.40 per square foot.
• Retail vacancy has risen and lease rates are stagnant; the office market is weak; there is currently no hotel or lodging product in West Linn.
• The PGE property was discussed as a potential major redevelopment site, but cleanup, access, and federal waterway issues are challenges; Metro capacity models treat it as unavailable or uneconomic.
• Council President Mary Baumgartner asked about PGE's roughly 90 acres, and the discussion also touched on sensitive lands excluded from the buildable land inventory, unincorporated islands that could potentially be annexed, and the Stafford Basin reserve. Stafford Basin annexation was not favored by participants.

Tourism as an Economic Development Tool

• Johnson reviewed the benefits and drawbacks of tourism: it can bring net-new money, support restaurants and amenities, and diversify the economy, but it can also create seasonal employment, low wages, housing affordability pressure, and strain on local infrastructure.
• Examples included the Oregon Coast, Bend, wine country, Hood River, Ashland, Hillsboro, and Spokane. He noted that West Linn's primary tourism asset is likely Willamette Falls access, but without overnight lodging the city may capture fewer tourism dollars.
• Mary Baumgartner raised concerns about Airbnb and short-term rentals reducing housing inventory; an EDC member and small business owner noted there is real demand for short-term stays in West Linn, but current zoning makes them difficult and there are no nearby hotels.

Regional Coordination & Next Steps

• Johnson recommended coordinating with Business Oregon and Greater Portland Inc., though land scarcity limits traditional business recruitment; he also stressed the importance of having a clear city point of contact for business inquiries.
• He suggested updating West Linn's 2016 Economic Opportunities Analysis and developing an economic development strategy or vision. An EOA would provide better, more authoritative employment data.
• He cautioned against zoning and approval systems that leave developers no viable or profitable path, and advised making community vision clear enough that developers can pursue projects that fit.
• One EDC member raised the risk of "bike-shedding" in large planning efforts and emphasized the need for clear ownership of specific elements in any strategy.

Key Outcomes

• No votes or formal decisions were taken.
• Next steps discussed included: updating the Economic Opportunities Analysis, exploring a broader economic development strategy, considering tourism planning tied to Willamette Falls access and lodging or short-term rental policies, and possibly holding another training session.