POPULATION

Chapter 1: Population

A broom is sturdy because its strands are tightly bound ~Filipino proverb

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Canoe launch, Kahului.

Population change on the island is inevitable. In-migration and out-migration occur at different rates and for different reasons. Understanding that our overall population will likely follow recent upward trends, it is our responsibility to decide how we would like this growth to manifest itself. Population growth can have positive and negative impacts on the environment, socio-economic and cultural composition of the island, and visitor experience. Visitors and new residents may arrive to Maui with expectations and values that conflict with the local way of life, a lifestyle that has been rooted on Maui for generations.

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The policies that are adopted to address the impacts of population change will ultimately define our expectations for the future, and are far more important than the population change itself.

Background Information

The 2030 Socio-Economic Forecast is a planning tool; it identifies future options for the community to consider. The community may want to adopt policies to achieve a specific outcome that differs from the forecasted outcome, and to minimize the undesirable impacts of current trends. The population projections are based on trends and model assumptions that are absent of policy changes or directives. The forecast affects both ongoing planning (project review and approval) and the desired future articulated by Maui’s residents and political leaders (General Plan and Community Plans). Because a long-term forecast identifies long-term trends and omits short-term variations, there will be many surprises along the way, even if a forecast turns out to be highly accurate.

The forecast was based on projections developed by the State of Hawai`i Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT). The forecast allocates expected countywide change to local areas. The DBEDT long-term econometric model draws on historical data over three decades, plus projections from DBEDT and national sources. The DBEDT model (and accordingly, the allocation model) is economically driven: industries that attract capital are taken as crucial to economic growth, which in turn leads to new jobs and increased population.

Historic Population Trends

To put population increase into perspective, it is appropriate to compare Maui Island’s population increase to the other major islands in the Hawaiian chain throughout the recent past. It is evident from Table 1-1 (below) that while O`ahu experienced the most dramatic population increase during the 1950s, the other islands, including Maui, were impacted by the steepest increase in population between 1970 and 1990.

Table 1 - 1: State and Island Population 1960 - 2010

United States Census.

According to the 2030 Socio-Economic Forecast, the total population is not expected to increase equally throughout the island; rather, there are specific regions where population growth is more likely to occur at a higher rate than others.

Table 1 - 2: Community Plan Area Population 2000 – 2030

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U.S. Census Bureau, 2000; Socio-Economic Forecast, Maui County Department of Planning, 2006, revised 2012.

Demographic Conditions, Trends, and Projections

Some demographic trends embedded in the forecast are consistent with the current projections.

• Between 2010 and 2030, the island’s resident population is expected to grow from 144,444 to 194,630, an increase of 35 percent.
• The island’s resident population is expected to grow at nearly an identical rate as the de facto population.
• The population is aging; the median age increased from 34.1 to 36.2 years between 1990 and 2000.
• Households are becoming smaller over time; Maui’s household size is projected to decline from 2.94 persons per household in 2000 to 2.66 persons per household in 2030.

Economic Factors

• Wage and salary jobs are expected to increase by about 1.1 percent annually.
• Per capita income will increase very little (in constant dollars).
• Visitor counts will increase by about 1 percent annually.
• Because of high occupancy rates, construction of new units is expected to resume, and the supply of visitor units is expected to grow at 1 percent annually.
• The past rate of growth in resident population, housing, and jobs is higher than the rate of visitor growth. This indicates that Maui’s economy has diversified and is less driven by tourism than in the past.

Community Plan Area Findings

To project future employment and housing needs for the island’s Community Plan Areas, the forecast model allocated households based on historic trends, availability of entitled lands for development or redevelopment, development constraints, and careful consideration of planned and proposed development projects. The forecast model recognized that relatively isolated areas – such as Hāna – depend much more on the success of one major employer than do others; therefore, an economic downturn can have a devastating impact. Map 1-1 depicts Maui’s major employment and population centers. For planning purposes, it is important to provide resident housing near employment.

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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The growth of Maui’s resident and visitor population will create both challenges and opportunities. Population growth can exacerbate existing infrastructure-capacity deficiencies, place additional demands on environmental resources, foster shifts in the cultural and ethnic makeup of the population, and change the landscape. In addition, the loss of cultural identity and diversity has created social tensions that have increased over at least the last 20 years. The cultural understanding and sensitivity of new residents to the host culture has been a constant point of discussion throughout the MIP’s public-engagement process.

Population Growth

Population growth can also contribute to the health of the community. Population growth is often necessary to maintain a growing economy, an expanding tax base, and employment opportunities. A host of negative social and economic conditions, such as unemployment, crime, family disintegration, and substance abuse, can be found in communities with longstanding population loss. Policies and actions to address population growth on Maui can be found throughout the MIP. Figure 1-1 depicts the projected growth in Maui’s resident and de facto population to 2030.

Maui’s population is aging; and recent data shows that trends related to Maui’s aging population will be similar to the trends on the Mainland. Figure 1-2 portrays Maui’s age distribution over time. This demographic change has significant impacts to public services as they relate to the elderly, including housing, transportation, health care, and elder care services.

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Figure 1 - 1. Maui Island Resident and De Facto Population Projections 1990 – 2030¹

Aging Population

In addition to the challenge of providing more senior services, the wage-earning population that typically supports children and seniors will be proportionally smaller. Policies and actions to address the aging population can be found in this chapter as well as the Housing, Economic Development, Land Use, and Infrastructure and Public Facilities chapters.

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Figure 1 - 2. Maui Island Age Distribution 1990 – 2030.²

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Figure 1-3 compares the percentage of Mauians born in Hawaii to the percentage born elsewhere. The percentage of those born in Hawaii has dropped from 67 percent in 1980 to 53 percent in 2000. The out-migration of island residents is a result of Maui’s high cost of housing, limited employment and educational opportunities, and the desire of some Maui residents to experience life outside of Hawai`i. Policies and actions to help provide a choice for island residents to remain on Maui can be found throughout the MIP.

Out-migration of Island Residents

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Figure 1-3. Maui Island Residents by Place of Birth 1980 – 2000. (Source: United States Census)

Ratio of Visitors to Residents

Figure 1-4 graphically depicts visitor/resident population trends from 1970 to the projection year of 2030. In 1970, the ratio of tourists to residents was approximately 1 to 20. This number has risen dramatically; by 2000, the ratio was approximately 1 to 3.

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Figure 1 - 4. Maui Island Visitor/Resident Population 1970 – 2030¹.

GOAL, OBJECTIVES, POLICIES, AND ACTIONS

Goal:

1.1 Maui’s people, values, and lifestyles thrive through strong, healthy, and vibrant island communities.

Objective:

1.1.1 Greater retention and return of island residents by providing viable work, education, and lifestyle options.

Policies:

1.1.1.a Expand programs that enable the community to meet the education, employment, housing, and social goals of youth and young adults.

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1.1.1.b Expand housing, transportation, employment, and social opportunities to ensure residents are able to comfortably age within their communities.

1.1.1.c Measure and track resident satisfaction through surveys and community indicators.

1.1.1.d Support funding for transportation, housing, health care, recreation, and social service programs that help those with special needs (including the elderly and disabled).

Implementing Actions:

1.1.1-Action 1 Use an existing agency to facilitate education, employment, housing, social services, and other programs that help retain young adults on Maui.

1.1.1-Action 2 Identify existing and develop new funding sources for youth and family services (e.g., recreation, health care, education, housing, child care, etc.) and integrate such resources to achieve an effective outcome.

1.1.1-Action 3 Develop and regularly conduct a Community Satisfaction Survey to measure residents’ quality-of-life, facilitate the development of informed policies/programs, and improve service delivery.

Employment & Population Density Map

Island of Maui

Background Map

For Informational Purposes Only

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*Socio Economic Forecast Copyright June 2006 Maui Planning Department Exhibit R-12

Legend

Jobs by Community Plan Areas*

Population Density Per Acre by Census Block

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This map is for informational purposes only and subject to change based on future research and findings.

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Product Code: M-CET_20120920-c1 Copyright © September 20, 2012 This is not a zoning map. Please contact the Planning Department for Zoning confirmation.

Prepared by: Long Range Planning Division Department of Planning County of Maui 250 South High Street Wailuku, Hawaii 96793

Map 1-1