Astoria Planning Commission Work Session: Housing Capacity Analysis Introduction - July 30, 2026

Note: The agenda and transcript indicate the meeting occurred on June 23, 2026, though the provided date for this summary is July 30, 2026. This discrepancy is noted per instructions.

The Astoria Planning Commission held a work session to introduce the Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA) project, a state-required study to determine if Astoria has enough land to meet projected housing needs over the next 20 years. Consultant Steve Fost (3J Consulting) presented the project scope, schedule, and public involvement plan. Commissioners discussed challenges including geography, steep slopes, and constrained land supply.

Work Session: Housing Capacity Analysis Introduction and Overview

Presentation Highlights:

• The HCA is an element of the Oregon Housing Needs Analysis, required for cities of 10,000+ population every eight years. Astoria's next housing production strategy is due in 2028.
• The state has allocated a 20-year housing production target of 1,802 units, with 654 units for the lowest income bracket (0-30% AMI) and 431 for 31-60% AMI. Approximately 1,000 of the 1,800 units are needed for households earning 0-60% of area median income.
• The project includes a contextualized housing need analysis, update of the buildable lands inventory (BLI), and a new development ready lands inventory (DRLI) for near-term construction (8-year horizon).
• Unique constraints for Astoria include limited developable land due to rivers, steep slopes, landslide hazards, tsunami and flood hazards, historic preservation considerations, a land reserve designation prohibiting residential development, and publicly owned vacant sites.
• The project schedule: work on contextualized housing need and BLI/DRLI through summer 2026; community meeting and focus groups in fall 2026; draft HCA analysis in winter 2027; final report and adoption by May 2027.

Discussion and Q&A:

• Commissioner Francis (Mike) questioned whether land that is vacant but owned by uninterested parties is factored into the BLI. Fost explained that private property ownership is not a factor the state allows them to consider; the assumption is that over 20 years, ownership may change.
• Commissioner Francis also asked about the Pipeline Road area and its developability. Director Roberts noted that while constraints exist, with enough investment there may be opportunities, and they will examine it closely.
• Commissioner David asked about historical housing production numbers to compare with the 1,802-unit target. Fost agreed to include such data in the contextualized housing need report.
• Commissioner Chris raised concerns about the state's methodology for population growth projections, noting Astoria's population has historically stayed around 10,000 and even declined in some projections (population crest in 2038, back under 10,000 by 2046). He questioned how the state's one-size-fits-all methodology applies to Astoria's unique geography. Fost acknowledged the state demographer's accuracy but Director Roberts noted the state data suggests growth.
• Commissioner David also noted the aging demographic (44% over 50) and how that might affect future housing needs.
• Commissioner Haveker (Chris) drew a parallel to tsunami zones where state enterprise zone policy didn't fit local geography, suggesting similar challenges for housing.
• The project's advisory committee is the Planning Commission; a joint work session with City Council is planned for September 2026.

Key Outcomes

• No formal votes or decisions were taken. The session was informational.
• The consultant will incorporate historical housing production data and population growth comparison into the contextualized housing need report.
• A joint work session with City Council is targeted for September 2026 to discuss the HCA progress.
• Next steps: Continue work on contextualized housing need and buildable lands inventory through summer, with community engagement (public meeting, focus groups, online survey) in the fall.